PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

Logan.

0x510904c9a58f5c5ad799a1b44947077564175e9c

Realised P&L
$348.0k
Volume
$25.42M
Markets traded
2,235
Open portfolio
$30.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar1.4%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
CautionMarkets traded2,235
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration26.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration15.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes0.2300.495$4.6k+$2.4k
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? · No0.4570.720$4.5k+$1.6k
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? · No0.5770.715$3.3k+$638.48
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.4670.840$2.0k+$904.94
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · No0.5200.590$1.8k+$210.00
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.2720.954$1.8k+$1.3k
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? · No0.3590.465$1.7k+$393.73
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? · No0.7090.815$1.7k+$222.20
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? · Yes0.3370.205$1.5k$967.87
Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes0.2270.145$1.0k$581.86
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? · No0.3150.954$964.89+$646.70
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.2200.162$534.39$194.05
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.3240.165$484.37$469.15
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0780.025$443.81$974.66
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes0.2630.165$437.52$259.52

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 09:22Will Lindsay Clancy be the #1 searched person on Google this year?BUY0.13$39.00
09-17 05:01Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?BUY0.1763333333$9.98
09-16 16:37Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?SELL0.6379308462$829.31
09-16 15:13Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?BUY0.4947669448$671.28
09-16 15:12Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?BUY0.4758309$1.4k
09-16 13:18Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?BUY0.002$2.07
09-16 13:18Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?BUY0.002$7.28
09-16 08:30Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?BUY0.56$560.00
08-25 21:19Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?BUY0.46$1.0k
08-13 00:15US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?BUY0.37$740.00
08-13 00:14US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?BUY0.37$740.00
08-12 23:18US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?BUY0.36$40.68
08-12 22:59Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?BUY0.37$831.68
08-12 22:41Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?BUY0.001$19.27
08-12 22:07Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?BUY0.003$36.67