0x5014c51a46d87fae4352f64892ffce55e1a6b748
0x5014c51a46d87fae4352f64892ffce55e1a6b748
- Realised P&L
- $8.07
- Volume
- $463.97
- Markets traded
- 110
- Open portfolio
- $6.77
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded110
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.345 | $1.64 | +$0.64 |
| Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 28? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.875 | $1.12 | +$0.12 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.655 | $1.09 | +$0.09 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.245 | $1.02 | +$0.02 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.735 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? · No | 0.760 | 0.705 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.62at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 25 to September 1, 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?
- +$5.62at 0.270Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?
- +$5.09at 0.288S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 16?
- +$5.07at 0.290Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 16:11 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 06:45 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 06:00 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 07:42 | Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 28? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 23:30 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999088 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 13:29 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 05:26 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299998882 | $1.00 |
| 09-29 21:26 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 12:50 | Will Core PCE YoY be 3.4% in August? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 04:50 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $177.50 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 04:50 | Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $216 Week of September 28 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 20:49 | Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in September? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 10:01 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.4199998908 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 01:56 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 15:05 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |