0x4e52ed5855dec528fc359825cc23e3429cca7d5f
0x4e52ed5855dec528fc359825cc23e3429cca7d5f
- Realised P&L
- $9.08
- Volume
- $521.01
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $426.68
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration72.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration16.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.55at 0.859Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $182.5B by October 31?
- +$1.30at 0.945Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?
- +$1.23at 0.908Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1490 by June 30, 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 04:29 | Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 50% or higher? | BUY | 0.88 | $1.87 |
| 10-14 04:29 | Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher? | BUY | 0.869999998 | $39.66 |
| 10-13 22:46 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher? | BUY | 0.9890386164 | $28.25 |
| 10-13 22:46 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | BUY | 0.992 | $39.79 |
| 10-13 22:46 | Will Meta's Watermelon model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher? | BUY | 0.9699999992 | $24.01 |
| 10-13 22:45 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | BUY | 0.9699998448 | $4.25 |
| 10-13 22:45 | Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | BUY | 0.95 | $13.70 |
| 10-13 22:44 | Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? | BUY | 0.99 | $39.79 |
| 10-13 22:43 | Will Meta's Watermelon model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | BUY | 0.9864786863 | $27.76 |
| 10-13 22:43 | Will Meta's Watermelon model debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 55% or higher? | BUY | 0.9409999986 | $32.08 |
| 10-13 22:42 | Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher? | BUY | 0.9499996968 | $2.82 |
| 10-13 22:42 | Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher? | BUY | 0.9489999999 | $39.75 |
| 10-13 22:42 | Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 40% or higher? | BUY | 0.9489999961 | $5.09 |
| 10-13 22:42 | Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | BUY | 0.96 | $22.61 |
| 10-13 22:34 | Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher? | BUY | 0.7914427335 | $37.25 |