noreasapa
0x4ad6cadefae3c28f5b2caa32a99ebba3a614464c
- Realised P&L
- $161.9k
- Volume
- $76.06M
- Markets traded
- 8,676
- Open portfolio
- $190.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded8,676
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration13.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.265 | 0.095 | $190.00 | −$340.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$82.7kat 0.410Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
- +$80.0kat 0.200Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$52.0kat 0.027Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?
- +$44.5kat 0.111Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?
- +$39.1kat 0.478Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 14:35 | Counter-Strike: Liquid vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner | BUY | 0.999 | $1.3k |
| 08-02 14:59 | Will Spinx win the BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 MVP? | BUY | 0.9818636364 | $216.01 |
| 08-02 14:59 | Will torzsi win the BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 MVP? | BUY | 0.9333333333 | $28.00 |
| 08-02 14:43 | Will Spirit Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2? | BUY | 0.999 | $143.86 |
| 08-02 14:41 | Will MOUZ Win BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2? | BUY | 0.998989074 | $6.4k |
| 08-02 13:35 | Blast Bounty 2026 Season 2: Both Finalists In Their First Grand Finals in 2026 | BUY | 0.999 | $1.0k |
| 08-01 13:29 | Will FaZe Make Blast Bounty Grand Finals | BUY | 0.9807352941 | $66.69 |
| 08-01 02:34 | Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31? | BUY | 0.9981075322 | $589.68 |
| 08-01 02:31 | Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? | BUY | 0.9986372991 | $748.22 |
| 08-01 02:30 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.2k |
| 07-31 20:14 | Will paiN Make Blast Bounty Grand Finals | BUY | 0.99 | $103.95 |
| 07-31 16:20 | Will OpenAI have the best Text-to-Image AI at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.9948818589 | $71.07 |
| 07-31 16:18 | Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $883.65 |
| 07-31 16:16 | Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $2.4k |
| 07-31 16:16 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.9987042299 | $12.2k |