noreasapa
0x4ad6cadefae3c28f5b2caa32a99ebba3a614464c
- Realised P&L
- $167.8k
- Volume
- $78.67M
- Markets traded
- 8,903
- Open portfolio
- $30.9k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded8,903
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- BlockerProfit concentration94.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration43.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.997 | 0.998 | $13.5k | +$9.24 |
| Trump meets with Putin by September 30? · No | 0.990 | 0.996 | $5.2k | +$30.19 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? · No | 0.995 | 0.995 | $5.0k | −$2.50 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.985 | 0.996 | $2.0k | +$21.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? · No | 0.995 | 0.997 | $1.8k | +$2.66 |
| Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? · No | 0.995 | 0.996 | $1.1k | +$0.33 |
| Will Russia invade a NATO country by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.990 | 0.997 | $822.52 | +$5.78 |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in September 2026? · No | 0.996 | 0.995 | $661.28 | −$0.69 |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? · No | 0.995 | 0.997 | $606.36 | +$0.82 |
| Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? · No | 0.994 | 0.997 | $267.80 | +$0.67 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$78.1kat 0.219Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$77.6kat 0.224Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$73.6kat 0.475Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
- +$51.3kat 0.042Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?
- +$44.5kat 0.111Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 16:50 | US recession by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $120.00 |
| 09-24 00:08 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9969125759 | $12.1k |
| 09-24 00:06 | Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in September 2026? | BUY | 0.995538214 | $661.97 |
| 09-24 00:02 | Trump meets with Putin by September 30? | BUY | 0.995 | $181.18 |
| 09-23 19:54 | Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027? | BUY | 0.9988971024 | $242.69 |
| 09-23 19:51 | Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.39% in September? | BUY | 0.9985986356 | $737.74 |
| 09-23 19:51 | Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% in September? | BUY | 0.9978379916 | $259.55 |
| 09-23 19:50 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% in September? | BUY | 0.9964189526 | $938.24 |
| 09-23 19:50 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% in September? | BUY | 0.9980329606 | $2.0k |
| 09-23 12:24 | Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat II Group C | BUY | 0.986227761 | $818.09 |
| 09-22 19:34 | Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - Logitech G Play Connect Playoffs | BUY | 0.9982432498 | $205.19 |
| 09-22 14:07 | Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by September 30? | BUY | 0.994 | $267.13 |
| 09-22 14:06 | Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? | BUY | 0.9951503887 | $605.54 |
| 09-22 14:05 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? | BUY | 0.9955454442 | $438.03 |
| 09-22 13:58 | Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $1.4k |