0x490894abee4ff9cea867a9706f8348189c408a94
- Realised P&L
- $72.99
- Volume
- $2.8k
- Markets traded
- 123
- Open portfolio
- $39.04
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded123
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration11.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$70.34at 0.027US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
- +$8.40at 0.049Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
- +$8.09at 0.160MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
- +$6.32at 0.240Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$4.67at 0.420US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-16 16:17 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.92 | $2.12 |
| 07-16 16:16 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.144 | $3.28 |
| 07-02 09:41 | Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.00 |
| 07-02 09:39 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.73 | $3.17 |
| 07-02 09:39 | Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? | SELL | 0.77 | $7.70 |
| 06-04 15:29 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.83 | $2.41 |
| 05-29 15:19 | Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? | SELL | 0.999 | $4.65 |
| 05-29 15:19 | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | SELL | 0.6 | $7.46 |
| 05-29 05:18 | Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.29 | $3.87 |
| 05-24 21:59 | US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | SELL | 0.74 | $2.42 |
| 05-23 15:00 | Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? | BUY | 0.0699999688 | $2.00 |
| 05-23 14:56 | AI bubble burst in 2026? | BUY | 0.2369999255 | $2.00 |
| 05-23 14:52 | Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? | BUY | 0.0309999845 | $2.00 |
| 05-23 14:52 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.459999885 | $2.00 |
| 05-23 14:51 | Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? | BUY | 0.0699999688 | $2.00 |