PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

kaifu

0x44f2f0df07acf63a1771923f5475997ec9511415

Realised P&L
$-2.0k
Volume
$521.0k
Markets traded
1,099
Open portfolio
$400.80

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,099
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration35.9% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration57.2% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0150.015$229.40+$2.44
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? · Yes0.2100.285$34.20+$9.00
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No0.6600.820$24.60+$4.80
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0470.021$24.60$32.20
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.0530.020$22.00$36.20
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0090.004$18.00$18.00
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? · Yes0.0600.059$11.70$0.30
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.0710.037$11.25$9.95
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes0.4400.512$10.25+$1.44
Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No0.4700.875$8.75+$4.05
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? · No0.5400.605$6.05+$0.65
Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? · No0.7900.000$0.00$7.90
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0870.000$0.00$8.70
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0450.000$0.00$22.40
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.0400.000$0.00$32.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
06-30 13:51Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?BUY0.06$12.00
06-30 13:48Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?SELL0.49$4.90
06-28 00:37Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.04$16.00
06-28 00:29Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.04$16.00
06-28 00:29Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.048$14.40
06-28 00:25Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?BUY0.21$4.20
06-28 00:25Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?BUY0.21$21.00
06-14 06:34Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.018$72.00
06-12 10:14Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12?BUY0.19$1.90
06-11 13:44Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?BUY0.5$5.00
06-08 15:50Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027?BUY0.79$7.90
06-08 15:47Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?BUY0.54$5.40
06-06 09:19Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?BUY0.301$3.01
03-13 13:57Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on IPO day?BUY0.034$5.61
03-13 13:55Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.087$8.70