kaifu
0x44f2f0df07acf63a1771923f5475997ec9511415
- Realised P&L
- $-2.0k
- Volume
- $521.0k
- Markets traded
- 1,099
- Open portfolio
- $400.80
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,099
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration35.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$263.70at 0.739Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $106K on June 27?
- +$235.62at 0.312Ethereum Up or Down on July 15?
- +$219.40at 0.581Bitcoin above $103,000 on June 24?
- +$200.89at 0.498Ethereum Up or Down on July 24?
- +$200.64at 0.619Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on July 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-30 13:51 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.06 | $12.00 |
| 06-30 13:48 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | SELL | 0.49 | $4.90 |
| 06-28 00:37 | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.04 | $16.00 |
| 06-28 00:29 | Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.04 | $16.00 |
| 06-28 00:29 | Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.048 | $14.40 |
| 06-28 00:25 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.21 | $4.20 |
| 06-28 00:25 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? | BUY | 0.21 | $21.00 |
| 06-14 06:34 | Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.018 | $72.00 |
| 06-12 10:14 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.90 |
| 06-11 13:44 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 06-08 15:50 | Will Lighter reach $4 before 2027? | BUY | 0.79 | $7.90 |
| 06-08 15:47 | Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.54 | $5.40 |
| 06-06 09:19 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.301 | $3.01 |
| 03-13 13:57 | Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on IPO day? | BUY | 0.034 | $5.61 |
| 03-13 13:55 | Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.087 | $8.70 |