PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Warren-Buffett

0x4478d7bd8a295691ac84f60a5ec2b47e122102a4

Realised P&L
$197.7k
Volume
$26.02M
Markets traded
1,467
Open portfolio
$155.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.8%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,467
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration35.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration19.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? · Yes0.9981.000$30.6k+$48.79
Fed rate hike in 2026? · Yes0.6090.675$10.1k+$989.42
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? · No0.9540.982$9.8k+$284.40
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? · Yes0.9620.982$9.8k+$192.53
Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? · Yes0.8580.855$8.6k$28.84
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026? · No0.7621.000$8.3k+$2.0k
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? · Yes0.1150.135$6.7k+$1.0k
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? · No0.6080.790$6.3k+$1.5k
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · Yes0.7910.887$4.4k+$481.04
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? · No0.8200.865$4.3k+$224.62
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? · No0.7260.705$4.2k$126.02
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1? · Yes0.9941.000$3.9k+$20.27
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? · Yes0.4060.690$3.1k+$1.3k
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.5870.620$3.1k+$165.93
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? · Yes0.9970.998$3.0k+$1.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 22:46Iran successfully targets shipping on August 3, 2026?BUY0.4830645842$91.55
08-02 22:45Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?BUY0.999$1.2k
08-02 22:42IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?BUY0.306744186$52.76
08-02 21:48Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?BUY0.0966681252$110.91
08-02 21:42US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?SELL0.4415996514$3.1k
08-02 21:37US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?SELL0.34$340.00
08-02 21:33Iran full airspace closure by August 15?SELL0.8425643469$999.08
08-02 21:32Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?SELL0.65$975.00
08-02 21:31US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?BUY0.44884985$897.70
08-02 21:31US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?SELL0.1862029134$371.72
08-02 21:31Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?SELL0.984$2.0k
08-02 21:31Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?SELL0.984673616$4.9k
08-02 21:30US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?BUY0.54$539.99
08-02 21:27Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?BUY0.999$13.7k
08-02 21:13Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?BUY0.999$3.6k