Warren-Buffett
0x4478d7bd8a295691ac84f60a5ec2b47e122102a4
- Realised P&L
- $131.8k
- Volume
- $29.60M
- Markets traded
- 1,542
- Open portfolio
- $78.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,542
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration25.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration15.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$124.6kat 0.360US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$20.8kat 0.002US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
- +$18.4kat 0.645Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
- +$10.2kat 0.908US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$9.6kat 0.185US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 22:50 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.0139992982 | $145.63 |
| 09-13 20:21 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21? | SELL | 0.1286773142 | $191.11 |
| 09-13 13:59 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.997 | $19.9k |
| 09-12 09:15 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.8475096648 | $719.06 |
| 09-11 20:19 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? | BUY | 0.2671648233 | $2.4k |
| 09-11 20:05 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? | BUY | 0.23 | $271.60 |
| 09-11 19:40 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.021 | $210.20 |
| 09-11 19:40 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.0194216951 | $449.20 |
| 09-11 19:39 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | BUY | 0.1 | $840.20 |
| 09-11 19:39 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14? | BUY | 0.2502861077 | $65.43 |
| 09-11 19:33 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.36 | $10.80 |
| 09-11 19:29 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.38 | $899.16 |
| 09-11 19:28 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.37 | $1.4k |
| 09-11 07:50 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15? | SELL | 0.002 | $178.00 |
| 09-10 15:50 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.015 | $111.51 |