VEF7SmxGhr
0x417d34c9906e42dc0d815adc750d560add30a21c
- Realised P&L
- $-254.55
- Volume
- $3.0k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $59.76
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? · Yes | 0.072 | 0.046 | $59.76 | −$32.60 |
| Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$82.28 |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance · France | 0.360 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.67 |
| Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.01 |
| Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? · No | 0.515 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$88.16 |
| Will Nicolás Maduro visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.70 |
| Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on March 19? · Yes | 0.284 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$42.47 |
| Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.31 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$20.65at 0.650Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?
- +$8.55at 0.049Will Matt Boldy win the 2025–2026 NHL Frank J. Selke Trophy?
- +$4.80at 0.900Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?
- +$-9.90at 0.044Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $9.00 end of March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-26 21:56 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.0740162646 | $27.30 |
| 08-26 21:50 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.071 | $29.56 |
| 08-26 21:49 | Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.071 | $35.50 |
| 07-14 19:41 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.3599999892 | $10.67 |
| 03-15 14:05 | Will Nicolás Maduro visit Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0374870446 | $7.70 |
| 03-15 10:05 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $9.00 end of March? | SELL | 0.014437318 | $4.76 |
| 03-15 09:09 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $9.00 end of March? | BUY | 0.0444585153 | $14.66 |
| 03-15 08:56 | Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on March 19? | BUY | 0.0396410856 | $5.93 |
| 03-14 21:27 | Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? | BUY | 0.5899971316 | $82.28 |
| 03-14 21:24 | Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? | BUY | 0.9 | $43.20 |
| 03-14 21:19 | Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? | BUY | 0.39 | $50.31 |
| 03-14 21:14 | Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? | BUY | 0.65 | $38.35 |
| 03-14 21:05 | Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.515574386 | $88.16 |
| 03-14 20:55 | Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.021 | $1.01 |
| 03-14 16:50 | Will Matt Boldy win the 2025–2026 NHL Frank J. Selke Trophy? | SELL | 0.488 | $9.50 |