0x40fe57965a53d6efde2C678b8B442bB76c3a3bFd-1760950579476
0x40fe57965a53d6efde2c678b8b442bb76c3a3bfd
- Realised P&L
- $-4.2k
- Volume
- $386.6k
- Markets traded
- 464
- Open portfolio
- $1.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded464
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration11.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$854.47at 0.579No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
- +$440.98at 0.729Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11?
- +$279.96at 0.249Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?
- +$137.43at 0.651Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$121.19at 0.507Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 20:18 | Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-19? | BUY | 0.81 | $24.30 |
| 09-16 20:14 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.47 | $9.40 |
| 09-16 20:12 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.87 | $60.00 |
| 09-16 19:51 | Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.8 | $88.00 |
| 09-16 19:28 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.999 | $124.88 |
| 09-16 11:42 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 11:35 | Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-17? | BUY | 0.5899999145 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 11:33 | Will RC Deportivo A Coruña win on 2026-09-16? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 11:26 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? | SELL | 0.022 | $7.33 |
| 09-16 08:48 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.88 | $88.00 |
| 09-15 19:22 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.41 | $9.10 |
| 09-15 16:30 | Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? | SELL | 0.3 | $7.50 |
| 09-15 16:25 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $57.75 |
| 09-15 12:33 | Will over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act? | BUY | 0.56 | $11.20 |
| 09-14 21:09 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.36 | $7.20 |