PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x40fe57965a53d6efde2C678b8B442bB76c3a3bFd-1760950579476

0x40fe57965a53d6efde2c678b8b442bb76c3a3bfd

Realised P&L
$-4.2k
Volume
$386.6k
Markets traded
464
Open portfolio
$1.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded464
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration11.8% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration33.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes0.8800.935$531.26+$31.25
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? · No0.8930.955$320.94+$20.94
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.7040.725$92.64+$2.64
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? · Yes0.8000.810$89.10+$1.10
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · No0.4150.315$87.20$27.81
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? · No0.7300.715$78.65$1.65
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? · Yes0.7100.675$54.00$2.80
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-19? · Yes0.8190.825$45.38+$0.33
Will Marc Marquez win the 2026 MotoGP World Championship? · Yes0.7400.730$42.61$0.58
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.0390.004$33.88$258.35
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · Yes0.1760.080$24.65$29.96
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? · Yes0.1730.195$17.23+$1.96
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? · Yes0.1200.195$16.25+$6.25
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31? · No0.5100.165$12.94$27.06
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-19? · Yes0.5700.565$11.89$0.11

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 20:18Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-09-19?BUY0.81$24.30
09-16 20:14Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.47$9.40
09-16 20:12Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?SELL0.87$60.00
09-16 19:51Another Fed rate hike in 2026?BUY0.8$88.00
09-16 19:28Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?SELL0.999$124.88
09-16 11:42Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.3599999712$2.00
09-16 11:35Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-09-17?BUY0.5899999145$2.00
09-16 11:33Will RC Deportivo A Coruña win on 2026-09-16?BUY0.3699999593$1.00
09-16 11:26Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30?SELL0.022$7.33
09-16 08:48Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.88$88.00
09-15 19:22Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?SELL0.41$9.10
09-15 16:30Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?SELL0.3$7.50
09-15 16:25Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?SELL0.87$57.75
09-15 12:33Will over 50 Senators vote for the Clarity Act?BUY0.56$11.20
09-14 21:09Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?SELL0.36$7.20