PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

0x3f8eb73c03607704e1692b320b707285809a2ef9

0x3f8eb73c03607704e1692b320b707285809a2ef9

Realised P&L
$-88.42
Volume
$136.1k
Markets traded
17
Open portfolio
$13.59

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded17
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration97.8% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample5 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration57.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes0.0420.033$7.74−$2.26
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 September 28-October 4? · Yes0.0070.007$3.71+$0.25
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0200.013$1.62−$0.78
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on October 1? · Yes0.0010.001$0.52+$0.00
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · Yes0.0050.000$0.00−$10.00
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.0530.000$0.00−$0.56
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · No0.0150.000$0.00−$5.00
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.0020.000$0.00−$1.38
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.0010.000$0.00−$5.00
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.0120.000$0.00−$5.00
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September? · Yes0.0340.000$0.00−$22.37
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September? · Yes0.1800.000$0.00−$3.01

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-30 19:54Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 September 28-October 4?BUY0.007$3.46
09-30 19:52Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on October 1?BUY0.001$0.52
09-21 18:21Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?BUY0.015$5.00
09-21 18:21Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?BUY0.001$5.00
09-21 18:20Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?BUY0.002$1.38
09-21 18:20Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?BUY0.012$5.00
09-21 18:19Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?BUY0.0419999998$10.00
09-21 18:19Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?BUY0.005$10.00
09-21 11:31Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?BUY0.02$2.40
09-21 11:27Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?BUY0.034$22.37
09-21 11:26Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on September 21?BUY0.001$82.24
09-21 11:21Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on September 21?BUY0.001$38.31
09-21 09:57Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2026?BUY0.053$0.56
09-21 09:54Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?SELL0.042$99.79
09-21 09:25Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?BUY0.8699999714$16.15