PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

anon-ch

0x3a8ec368ff78ab6fb3e61b26b8b307158f854d0b

Realised P&L
$-0.64
Volume
$387.32
Markets traded
28
Open portfolio
$44.63

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded28
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration42.2% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample14 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)78.6%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration23.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? · Yes0.7760.823$10.60+$0.60
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) · Yes0.6000.545$9.08$0.92
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes0.5000.635$6.35+$1.35
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September? · No0.9500.995$5.23+$0.23
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes0.4100.425$5.18+$0.18
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1390.087$3.15$1.85
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September? · Yes0.7600.275$1.81$3.19
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 21-27? · Yes0.6700.105$1.57$8.43
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.2130.206$0.97$0.03
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0210.011$0.52$0.48
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.4000.065$0.16$0.84
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? · Yes0.0370.000$0.00$0.41
Insurrection Act invoked by March 31? · Yes0.3200.000$0.00$2.00
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? · Yes0.6300.000$0.00$9.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-24 06:25Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)BUY0.599999988$10.00
09-22 14:28Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?BUY0.7599999696$5.00
09-21 22:55Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 21-27?BUY0.6699999611$10.00
09-21 21:57Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?BUY0.7761193659$10.00
09-21 19:59Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?BUY0.9819999986$10.00
09-21 17:28Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?SELL0.0291276487$1.14
09-21 17:27Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 25?BUY0.9659998949$5.00
09-21 16:35Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?BUY0.949999981$5.00
09-21 12:17Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 21?BUY0.9299998419$5.00
09-21 12:01Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 21?BUY0.9299999284$10.00
09-21 11:45Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.41$5.00
09-21 11:43Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.5$5.00
09-03 11:39Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.5099999796$5.00
05-20 20:29Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30?BUY0.8$1.00
05-20 20:29Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?BUY0.7$1.00