LuckyPunch99
0x316994394b3675ead48b2a8eb68daaab7b1a21b4
- Realised P&L
- $2.6k
- Volume
- $726.6k
- Markets traded
- 536
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded536
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.8kat 0.799Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$3.1kat 0.553US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$1.3kat 0.592Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5
- +$829.37at 0.120US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$493.55at 0.205Patriots vs. Seahawks
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-18 06:19 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.02 | $6.00 |
| 09-18 06:19 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.02 | $6.00 |
| 09-17 18:41 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $45.98 |
| 09-17 17:18 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.031 | $7.70 |
| 09-17 14:06 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $5.50 |
| 09-15 20:59 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.048 | $7.72 |
| 09-15 16:32 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | SELL | 0.17 | $32.00 |
| 09-14 22:07 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $60.00 |
| 09-14 22:07 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $60.00 |
| 09-14 15:07 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $5.30 |
| 09-14 15:07 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $5.30 |
| 09-14 11:54 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.07 | $21.00 |
| 09-13 15:45 | T20 Series Japan vs Malaysia, Women: Japan vs Malaysia | SELL | 0.991 | $0.91 |
| 09-13 15:42 | T20 Series Japan vs Malaysia, Women: Japan vs Malaysia | BUY | 0.989 | $9.47 |
| 09-13 11:31 | Phan Thiet 4 (Doubles): Sueoka/Tajima vs Kouzmine/Dev | SELL | 0.502 | $1.87 |