LuckyPunch99
0x316994394b3675ead48b2a8eb68daaab7b1a21b4
- Realised P&L
- $4.6k
- Volume
- $667.1k
- Markets traded
- 398
- Open portfolio
- $982.98
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded398
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)84.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration51.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.8kat 0.799Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$3.1kat 0.553US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$965.00at 0.586Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5
- +$829.37at 0.120US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$415.92at 0.420Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 21:47 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | BUY | 0.035 | $10.64 |
| 08-01 17:20 | Bologna FC vs. SC Cambuur: O/U 3.5 | SELL | 0.287513434 | $130.02 |
| 08-01 17:19 | Bologna FC vs. SC Cambuur: O/U 3.5 | SELL | 0.6549530086 | $296.18 |
| 08-01 12:43 | Bologna FC vs. SC Cambuur: O/U 3.5 | SELL | 0.344 | $1.54 |
| 08-01 02:02 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | BUY | 0.99 | $741.01 |
| 07-31 19:45 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | BUY | 0.4895015649 | $564.60 |
| 07-31 19:32 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | SELL | 0.991 | $2.39 |
| 07-31 19:32 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | SELL | 0.991 | $0.99 |
| 07-31 19:32 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | SELL | 0.99 | $52.96 |
| 07-31 19:32 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | SELL | 0.99 | $30.41 |
| 07-31 19:30 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | BUY | 0.97 | $5.19 |
| 07-31 19:16 | U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? | BUY | 0.398 | $32.83 |
| 07-31 12:02 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.962646001 | $887.54 |
| 07-30 21:57 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7676950207 | $341.96 |
| 07-30 18:28 | Bitcoin Up or Down - July 30, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET | BUY | 0.14 | $2.90 |