PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

lacuna-m1

0x307fe0255c2076697775fcc6be19dd17474cc327

Realised P&L
$-7.1k
Volume
$95.4k
Markets traded
76
Open portfolio
$563.21

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-7.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded76
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration31.1% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration45.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes0.2180.205$254.20$16.20
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? · Yes0.4100.365$182.50$22.50
Iran nuclear test before 2027? · Yes0.1220.050$40.97$59.02
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? · Yes0.1260.065$32.50$30.66
US recession by end of 2026? · Yes0.2500.095$19.00$31.00
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? · No0.4140.113$11.25$30.15
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? · Yes0.5500.105$10.50$44.50
Will Trump's approval rating hit 30% in 2026? · Yes0.1000.085$8.50$1.50
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? · Yes0.1400.095$2.38$1.13
Stripe IPO before 2027? · Yes0.0900.025$1.40$3.64
Will any AI model reach 1570 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.3200.000$0.00$13.44
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? · Yes0.5720.000$0.00$45.17
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? · No0.0050.000$0.00$30.66
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? · Yes0.5120.000$0.00$2.0k
Will Trump accuse Ukraine of election interference by July 16? · Yes0.0210.000$0.00$10.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-16 22:46Will Trump accuse Canada of election interference by July 16?BUY0.016$0.14
07-07 08:08Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?SELL0.999$1.4k
05-14 15:47Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?BUY0.16$6.40
05-12 15:56Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?BUY0.74$44.40
05-12 15:55Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?BUY0.547$8.21
05-11 16:58Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June?BUY0.2886960303$66.40
05-10 20:09Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?BUY0.55$192.50
05-10 18:36Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?BUY0.4547726351$134.61
05-10 18:33Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?BUY0.43$35.69
05-10 18:31Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?BUY0.5101806452$31.63
05-10 18:31Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?BUY0.4992826087$57.42
05-09 18:47Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?BUY0.39$24.96
05-09 18:42Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June?BUY0.494$2.58
05-09 18:42Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?BUY0.21$50.40
05-09 18:38Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?BUY0.3654566516$200.00