lacuna-m1
0x307fe0255c2076697775fcc6be19dd17474cc327
- Realised P&L
- $-7.1k
- Volume
- $95.4k
- Markets traded
- 76
- Open portfolio
- $563.21
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded76
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.260Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?
- +$776.92at 0.498Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$320.53at 0.300Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
- +$282.70at 0.332Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
- +$195.85at 0.572Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-16 22:46 | Will Trump accuse Canada of election interference by July 16? | BUY | 0.016 | $0.14 |
| 07-07 08:08 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.4k |
| 05-14 15:47 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? | BUY | 0.16 | $6.40 |
| 05-12 15:56 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? | BUY | 0.74 | $44.40 |
| 05-12 15:55 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? | BUY | 0.547 | $8.21 |
| 05-11 16:58 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? | BUY | 0.2886960303 | $66.40 |
| 05-10 20:09 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.55 | $192.50 |
| 05-10 18:36 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? | BUY | 0.4547726351 | $134.61 |
| 05-10 18:33 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? | BUY | 0.43 | $35.69 |
| 05-10 18:31 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? | BUY | 0.5101806452 | $31.63 |
| 05-10 18:31 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? | BUY | 0.4992826087 | $57.42 |
| 05-09 18:47 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? | BUY | 0.39 | $24.96 |
| 05-09 18:42 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? | BUY | 0.494 | $2.58 |
| 05-09 18:42 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $50.40 |
| 05-09 18:38 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? | BUY | 0.3654566516 | $200.00 |