lacuna-m1
0x307fe0255c2076697775fcc6be19dd17474cc327
- Realised P&L
- $-6.6k
- Volume
- $130.7k
- Markets traded
- 124
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded124
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.267Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?
- +$776.92at 0.498Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$320.40at 0.845Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in August?
- +$314.27at 0.309Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
- +$274.51at 0.339Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-12 20:44 | Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027? | BUY | 0.07 | $115.26 |
| 10-12 17:43 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $72.05 |
| 10-12 04:23 | US imports Russian diesel by October 31? | BUY | 0.318642 | $31.86 |
| 10-12 04:21 | US imports Russian diesel by October 31? | BUY | 0.29 | $29.00 |
| 10-12 03:56 | US imports Russian diesel by October 31? | BUY | 0.34 | $44.06 |
| 10-11 20:53 | Will Trump's approval rating hit 34% in 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $9.00 |
| 10-11 20:50 | Russia lifts diesel export ban by October 30? | SELL | 0.039 | $2.34 |
| 10-11 20:49 | US imports Russian diesel by October 31? | BUY | 0.4498852941 | $15.30 |
| 10-11 20:49 | US imports Russian diesel by October 31? | BUY | 0.44 | $134.20 |
| 10-11 20:49 | US imports Russian diesel by October 31? | BUY | 0.4394693333 | $131.84 |
| 10-11 20:35 | US imports Russian diesel by October 31? | BUY | 0.43 | $2.69 |
| 10-11 20:34 | US imports Russian diesel by October 31? | BUY | 0.43 | $152.65 |
| 10-11 17:20 | Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? | SELL | 0.3 | $33.00 |
| 10-11 17:20 | Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15? | SELL | 0.14 | $29.52 |
| 10-11 17:19 | Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? | SELL | 0.4211835714 | $58.97 |