PolyBot

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Traders

lacuna-m1

0x307fe0255c2076697775fcc6be19dd17474cc327

Realised P&L
$-6.6k
Volume
$130.7k
Markets traded
124
Open portfolio
$1.5k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-5.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded124
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration26.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration35.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes0.1810.175$525.00−$17.00
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027? · Yes0.0700.115$189.35+$74.10
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? · Yes0.4100.300$150.00−$55.00
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes0.1300.095$95.00−$35.00
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? · No0.3800.635$82.55+$33.15
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? · Yes0.0600.065$65.00+$5.00
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? · Yes0.0920.052$52.50−$39.16
Elon Musk out as Project Meridian co-lead by January 27? · Yes0.3100.510$51.00+$20.00
SpaceX becomes a US mobile carrier by June 30, 2027? · Yes0.2800.125$45.00−$55.80
Iran Nuke before 2027? · Yes0.0370.036$36.50−$0.50
Iran nuclear test before 2027? · Yes0.1220.043$35.65−$64.35
US recession by end of 2027? · Yes0.3500.315$31.50−$3.50
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1600.145$29.00−$3.00
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30? · Yes0.0920.190$19.00+$9.80
Will ByteDance have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026? · Yes0.2010.141$13.78−$5.93

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-12 20:44Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?BUY0.07$115.26
10-12 17:43US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?BUY0.14$72.05
10-12 04:23US imports Russian diesel by October 31?BUY0.318642$31.86
10-12 04:21US imports Russian diesel by October 31?BUY0.29$29.00
10-12 03:56US imports Russian diesel by October 31?BUY0.34$44.06
10-11 20:53Will Trump's approval rating hit 34% in 2026?BUY0.15$9.00
10-11 20:50Russia lifts diesel export ban by October 30?SELL0.039$2.34
10-11 20:49US imports Russian diesel by October 31?BUY0.4498852941$15.30
10-11 20:49US imports Russian diesel by October 31?BUY0.44$134.20
10-11 20:49US imports Russian diesel by October 31?BUY0.4394693333$131.84
10-11 20:35US imports Russian diesel by October 31?BUY0.43$2.69
10-11 20:34US imports Russian diesel by October 31?BUY0.43$152.65
10-11 17:20Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?SELL0.3$33.00
10-11 17:20Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15?SELL0.14$29.52
10-11 17:19Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?SELL0.4211835714$58.97