thearchitect100
0x2f278ba8dd965cec611f9f8d3c0eb28032be9834
- Realised P&L
- $-8.79
- Volume
- $4.6k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $82.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)55.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$84.81at 0.540US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$71.35at 0.467US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$58.68at 0.560Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$43.23at 0.530Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
- +$15.33at 0.500Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-14 19:50 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.15 | $15.00 |
| 05-09 01:31 | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0237440476 | $3.19 |
| 05-09 00:54 | New pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $11.41 |
| 04-16 14:21 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.1099999815 | $5.00 |
| 03-17 17:25 | NATO dissolves before 2027? | BUY | 0.09 | $18.00 |
| 03-17 17:23 | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $13.44 |
| 03-08 16:51 | Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1097390598 | $18.00 |
| 03-08 09:44 | Iran nuclear test before 2027? | BUY | 0.1399999939 | $18.00 |
| 03-08 07:17 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.119999996 | $25.00 |
| 03-08 05:59 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? | BUY | 0.5299999936 | $25.00 |
| 03-08 05:57 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.1080000004 | $35.00 |
| 03-08 05:56 | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | BUY | 0.1587976747 | $35.00 |
| 03-08 05:54 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3910385364 | $40.00 |
| 02-28 20:48 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.0749999918 | $8.00 |
| 02-28 20:03 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | BUY | 0.064 | $8.00 |