65765757
0x2974bd0059e48f215c391882976e0f1b4c8c9c23
- Realised P&L
- $229.1k
- Volume
- $7.65M
- Markets traded
- 259
- Open portfolio
- $400.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar3.0%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded259
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$112.9kat 0.591US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$67.3kat 0.351Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?
- +$53.3kat 0.526Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$47.0kat 0.566Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
- +$27.3kat 0.618Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 22:04 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | BUY | 0.92 | $1.8k |
| 08-02 20:19 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.978 | $3.9k |
| 08-02 20:18 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | BUY | 0.8299999995 | $234.00 |
| 08-02 20:18 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.4k |
| 08-02 20:17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.9760719549 | $2.2k |
| 08-02 20:17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.987998482 | $3.8k |
| 08-02 20:17 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | SELL | 0.998 | $13.3k |
| 08-02 20:15 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | BUY | 0.8799999997 | $247.00 |
| 08-02 20:15 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.9739927981 | $449.00 |
| 08-02 20:14 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.9699999999 | $70.00 |
| 08-02 20:14 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | BUY | 0.8699999993 | $1.1k |
| 08-02 20:13 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? | BUY | 0.9699999999 | $102.00 |
| 08-02 20:13 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | SELL | 0.999 | $1.9k |
| 08-02 19:31 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.81 | $1.3k |
| 08-02 19:31 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? | BUY | 0.87 | $182.00 |