noblesse.oblige
0x24d2dce995531ddcde1960388cbf20f5edd41472
- Realised P&L
- $-45.5k
- Volume
- $2.48M
- Markets traded
- 161
- Open portfolio
- $2.6k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded161
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration93.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration70.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$29.2kat 0.980Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$4.4kat 0.377Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
- +$1.1kat 0.260Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
- +$468.90at 0.808Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- +$374.94at 0.934Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 06:16 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.55 | $44.00 |
| 10-29 06:16 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $12.80 |
| 10-29 05:47 | Macron out by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.031 | $10.16 |
| 10-29 04:45 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.21 | $10.50 |
| 10-25 16:48 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.07 | $0.70 |
| 10-24 14:38 | Macron out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.058 | $2.90 |
| 10-24 14:33 | Macron out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.058 | $2.90 |
| 10-24 14:32 | Macron out by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.057 | $1.14 |
| 10-24 13:07 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.06 | $30.00 |
| 10-24 12:03 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.55 | $4.86 |
| 10-24 11:56 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by February 28, 2027? | BUY | 0.29 | $21.75 |
| 10-24 11:53 | Macron out by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0397891083 | $47.75 |
| 10-24 11:42 | Macron out by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.048 | $1.07 |
| 10-24 00:04 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.06 | $18.00 |
| 10-23 18:11 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.06 | $4.80 |