PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

mrblarg64

0x2482f87037df2ce3cada66afad2d1820ad5afd45

Realised P&L
$-21.08
Volume
$6.9k
Markets traded
99
Open portfolio
$441.05

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded99
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration25.2% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration34.3% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? · Yes0.2420.245$152.50+$1.58
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by August 31? · No0.7610.875$59.83+$7.77
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes0.0120.011$36.97$3.05
Will Wisconsin disenfranchise any voter for betting on elections before election day? · No0.7880.950$31.32+$5.32
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? · No0.7080.635$21.52$2.48
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by August 31? · No0.7990.890$20.32+$2.08
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? · Yes0.3390.505$17.75+$5.83
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No0.9300.976$14.16+$0.66
Will the sender of the “I beat Bush” email to Epstein not be revealed in 2026? · Yes0.8420.670$13.45$3.45
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026? · Yes0.0850.052$10.07$6.16
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? · Yes0.3050.135$9.21$11.62
Anthony Fauci charged by December 31? · No0.5960.635$8.52+$0.52
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No0.9020.931$7.74+$0.24
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? · Yes0.3560.345$5.81$0.19
US recession by end of 2026? · Yes0.2390.095$5.12$7.77

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 22:28Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?BUY0.599999976$5.00
08-02 22:26Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?BUY0.95$1.00
08-02 22:25Obama federally charged before 2027?BUY0.9719999806$1.00
08-02 22:25Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?BUY0.5899998466$1.00
08-02 20:58Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?BUY0.3499999615$5.00
08-02 19:12Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?BUY0.5899999675$2.00
08-02 16:15Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?BUY0.25$15.00
08-01 12:39Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?BUY0.8599999656$2.00
08-01 12:39Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?BUY0.9299999814$2.00
08-01 12:26Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by August 31?BUY0.81$9.44
08-01 12:25Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?BUY0.6099999994$10.00
08-01 01:13Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?BUY0.4899998285$1.00
08-01 01:12Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?BUY0.5$1.00
07-30 15:24Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by August 31?BUY0.849999915$1.00
07-30 15:23Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by August 31?BUY0.9399999624$1.00