ShMonat
0x2254535e71d727864e9b6bd554a2b48ff22a89da
- Realised P&L
- $-125.84
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $10.92
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-10.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration74.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026? · No | 0.573 | 0.220 | $3.83 | −$6.17 |
| Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026? · Yes | 0.308 | 0.107 | $3.47 | −$6.53 |
| Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026? · Yes | 0.093 | 0.021 | $2.26 | −$7.74 |
| Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026? · Yes | 0.232 | 0.011 | $1.36 | −$28.64 |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes | 0.403 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? · Yes | 0.070 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? · Yes | 0.713 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.30at 0.814Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?
- +$2.66at 0.790Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
- +$0.59at 0.709Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
- +$-29.31at 0.445Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-25 19:29 | Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.0699999939 | $10.00 |
| 03-25 19:29 | Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.1099999913 | $10.00 |
| 03-16 17:09 | Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | BUY | 0.7899999866 | $10.00 |
| 03-12 16:13 | Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026? | BUY | 0.2140368185 | $10.00 |
| 03-08 20:03 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | SELL | 0.751 | $10.59 |
| 03-04 05:06 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | BUY | 0.7089999972 | $10.00 |
| 03-03 18:29 | Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | SELL | 0.3261294103 | $80.69 |
| 03-03 18:12 | Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | BUY | 0.4399999981 | $100.00 |
| 03-03 17:24 | Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7? | BUY | 0.496056352 | $10.00 |
| 03-03 16:48 | Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15? | BUY | 0.814 | $40.70 |
| 03-03 16:45 | Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? | BUY | 0.7128712857 | $10.00 |
| 03-03 10:45 | Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31? | BUY | 0.2 | $20.00 |
| 03-02 13:46 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.4029998749 | $10.00 |
| 03-02 07:49 | Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026? | BUY | 0.0930111427 | $10.00 |
| 03-02 07:49 | Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026? | BUY | 0.5729999833 | $10.00 |