PolyBot

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Traders

ShMonat

0x2254535e71d727864e9b6bd554a2b48ff22a89da

Realised P&L
$-125.84
Volume
$1.2k
Markets traded
13
Open portfolio
$10.92

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-10.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded13
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration74.1% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample4 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration35.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026? · No0.5730.220$3.83$6.17
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026? · Yes0.3080.107$3.47$6.53
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026? · Yes0.0930.021$2.26$7.74
Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026? · Yes0.2320.011$1.36$28.64
Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31? · Yes0.2000.000$0.00$20.00
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? · Yes0.4030.000$0.00$10.00
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? · Yes0.1100.000$0.00$10.00
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? · Yes0.0700.000$0.00$10.00
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? · Yes0.7130.000$0.00$10.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
03-25 19:29Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?BUY0.0699999939$10.00
03-25 19:29Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?BUY0.1099999913$10.00
03-16 17:09Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?BUY0.7899999866$10.00
03-12 16:13Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026?BUY0.2140368185$10.00
03-08 20:03Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?SELL0.751$10.59
03-04 05:06Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?BUY0.7089999972$10.00
03-03 18:29Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?SELL0.3261294103$80.69
03-03 18:12Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?BUY0.4399999981$100.00
03-03 17:24Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?BUY0.496056352$10.00
03-03 16:48Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?BUY0.814$40.70
03-03 16:45Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?BUY0.7128712857$10.00
03-03 10:45Israeli parliament dissolved by March 31?BUY0.2$20.00
03-02 13:46Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?BUY0.4029998749$10.00
03-02 07:49Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?BUY0.0930111427$10.00
03-02 07:49Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?BUY0.5729999833$10.00