PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

George.Smiley

0x2110ba2a1e18840109482ff4ddc547baeff45850

Realised P&L
$49.8k
Volume
$1.75M
Markets traded
293
Open portfolio
$12.1k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.8%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded293
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration25.8% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration52.1% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.9110.915$6.3k+$29.49
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026? · No0.9060.910$1.6k+$7.10
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.6810.815$1.0k+$170.45
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.3800.615$805.59+$307.83
Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026? · No0.5300.885$553.43+$222.23
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 12 and October 18, 2026? · Yes0.5000.365$365.00$135.00
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.5700.385$334.95$160.95
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.0900.077$294.59$49.74
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? · No0.8500.984$250.19+$33.96
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.1660.071$214.50$283.50
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.3090.132$210.40$283.60
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? · No0.2700.150$75.00$60.00
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between October 19 and October 25, 2026? · Yes0.1480.181$49.82+$9.08
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026? · Yes0.4700.620$36.58+$8.85
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes0.0870.027$5.40$12.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-12 07:01Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?BUY0.09$349.20
09-07 21:49Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?BUY0.7$980.76
08-13 17:04Next Google Gemini Flash Model released by August 15, 2026?BUY0.9871205035$561.45
08-13 17:04Next Google Gemini Flash Model released by August 13, 2026?BUY0.9898275862$574.10
08-05 22:35Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 14, 2026?SELL0.6666672222$399.99
07-07 12:16Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?BUY0.58$43.70
06-24 07:11Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026?BUY0.9596961759$1.4k
06-21 22:41Starmer out by June 22, 2026?BUY0.85$1.1k
06-21 22:26Starmer out by June 22, 2026?BUY0.84$2.2k
06-21 20:48Starmer out by June 22, 2026?BUY0.5958254901$1.6k
06-21 09:12Starmer out by June 22, 2026?BUY0.8346472817$2.2k
06-21 09:11Starmer out by June 22, 2026?BUY0.8076398288$5.0k
06-21 08:45Starmer out by June 22, 2026?BUY0.6767644943$2.5k
06-20 22:54Starmer out by June 22, 2026?BUY0.6599498347$1.3k
06-19 16:26Starmer out by June 30, 2026?BUY0.4769795184$5.5k