0x1ff3d3fdef2558f3eb4aabdd7011a0245df8eb39
0x1ff3d3fdef2558f3eb4aabdd7011a0245df8eb39
- Realised P&L
- $2.3k
- Volume
- $205.5k
- Markets traded
- 354
- Open portfolio
- $6.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded354
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$707.62at 0.394Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- +$602.74at 0.738Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
- +$446.00at 0.484Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
- +$383.07at 0.162Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15, 2026?
- +$369.54at 0.473Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 18:05 | Will any country join the Mecca Agreement by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.06 | $2.38 |
| 09-21 18:04 | Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026? | SELL | 0.060611503 | $14.01 |
| 09-21 17:57 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.52 | $26.98 |
| 09-21 17:55 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.525 | $42.18 |
| 09-21 17:51 | Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.13 |
| 09-21 17:49 | Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.012 | $3.56 |
| 09-21 17:48 | Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.054 | $11.07 |
| 09-21 17:47 | Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.051 | $1.68 |
| 09-21 17:23 | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.008 | $1.12 |
| 09-21 15:51 | Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.0141369235 | $3.73 |
| 09-21 15:47 | Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.0578949097 | $14.10 |
| 09-21 13:56 | Will no listed leader be out before 2027? | BUY | 0.34 | $51.00 |
| 09-21 13:37 | Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.77 | $191.72 |
| 09-21 13:27 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.5302988583 | $39.48 |
| 09-21 04:49 | Will Donald Trump Jr. announce a presidential run before 2028? | SELL | 0.84 | $25.20 |