bravelittleguy
0x1d66d98518f21288355bbc6455c5ad29b4a3928f
- Realised P&L
- $-192.94
- Volume
- $1.01M
- Markets traded
- 237
- Open portfolio
- $20.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded237
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$850.21at 0.776Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$690.31at 0.881Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
- +$666.75at 0.991Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?
- +$408.57at 0.839US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
- +$399.00at 0.600US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 18:11 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.83 | $500.00 |
| 09-14 16:03 | Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999981 | $100.00 |
| 09-10 16:37 | Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.989 | $494.50 |
| 09-09 01:02 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $500.00 |
| 08-28 02:27 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $45.06 |
| 08-28 02:25 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.8894156397 | $2.5k |
| 08-28 02:25 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30? | SELL | 0.968 | $1.2k |
| 08-19 01:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $230.39 |
| 08-19 01:00 | Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August? | BUY | 0.64 | $150.00 |
| 08-19 00:54 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.8299999988 | $500.00 |
| 08-19 00:51 | Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.984432429 | $1.9k |
| 08-13 22:05 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.543931053 | $223.10 |
| 08-12 05:45 | Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | SELL | 0.1017835052 | $49.37 |
| 08-12 05:37 | Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | SELL | 0.105 | $1.57 |
| 08-11 19:22 | Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | SELL | 0.9575349339 | $1.2k |