goask
0x1cea7192af5d7b1826083a19c5be75115a2df32a
- Realised P&L
- $-4.5k
- Volume
- $413.8k
- Markets traded
- 648
- Open portfolio
- $2.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded648
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.3kat 0.167Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on November 12?
- +$754.69at 0.050Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in November?
- +$715.19at 0.046Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt?
- +$666.25at 0.166Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on January 31?
- +$633.42at 0.092Han Duck-soo in jail by September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 10:44 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.05 | $1.86 |
| 09-15 09:37 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4499999978 | $73.00 |
| 09-15 09:36 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.1199999999 | $74.00 |
| 09-14 16:01 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.4009779907 | $30.00 |
| 09-13 16:57 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.21 | $19.95 |
| 09-13 15:53 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.21 | $50.40 |
| 09-13 15:51 | Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.086 | $7.74 |
| 09-13 15:45 | Will Cheng Chao-fang win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election? | BUY | 0.48 | $29.77 |
| 09-11 14:21 | Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.006 | $1.20 |
| 09-11 14:14 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2 | $2.00 |
| 09-11 14:10 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.132 | $8.40 |
| 09-09 16:04 | Will Genta Koja win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.7 | $97.74 |
| 09-09 16:03 | Will Denny Tamaki win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election? | SELL | 0.3058598726 | $14.41 |
| 09-09 16:03 | Will Genta Koja win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election? | SELL | 0.3 | $12.00 |
| 09-09 16:02 | Will Denny Tamaki win the 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.33 | $15.54 |