Outsmarter
0x1b6022ae41ad7a0b387a88c17885c754436ca55b
- Realised P&L
- $74.2k
- Volume
- $736.8k
- Markets traded
- 162
- Open portfolio
- $68.2k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar10.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded162
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$48.2kat 0.271Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?
- +$5.3kat 0.421Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?
- +$3.9kat 0.630Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
- +$3.7kat 0.329Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$2.7kat 0.509US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 12:10 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $133.12 |
| 08-01 10:36 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.38 | $95.00 |
| 08-01 10:31 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $202.25 |
| 07-31 19:13 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $399.60 |
| 07-31 18:48 | Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $270.00 |
| 07-28 01:00 | Andrii Sybiha appointed as Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs by July 31? | SELL | 0.997 | $34.79 |
| 07-28 00:57 | Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9771160221 | $176.86 |
| 07-28 00:56 | Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $809.87 |
| 07-26 17:43 | Will Reliance Industries Ltd be the largest Indian company? | SELL | 0.88 | $53.40 |
| 07-26 17:41 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.76 | $345.80 |
| 07-26 05:48 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.2356517489 | $21.69 |
| 07-26 01:13 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.428 | $376.74 |
| 07-25 19:34 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.029 | $249.40 |
| 07-25 19:31 | Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.028 | $72.80 |
| 07-25 09:20 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.2701092364 | $84.05 |