Outsmarter
0x1b6022ae41ad7a0b387a88c17885c754436ca55b
- Realised P&L
- $77.7k
- Volume
- $829.8k
- Markets traded
- 184
- Open portfolio
- $87.6k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar9.4%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded184
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$48.2kat 0.271Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?
- +$5.3kat 0.421Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?
- +$3.9kat 0.630Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?
- +$3.7kat 0.329Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$2.7kat 0.509US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 20:28 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.93 | $500.00 |
| 09-16 05:36 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7135167636 | $500.00 |
| 09-16 05:35 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6611655174 | $500.00 |
| 09-16 05:35 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4804355346 | $500.00 |
| 09-16 05:33 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.8582980991 | $11.2k |
| 09-12 11:20 | Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026? | BUY | 0.6982099294 | $500.00 |
| 09-10 14:28 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.8299999994 | $1.0k |
| 09-10 05:07 | Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31? | BUY | 0.958 | $383.19 |
| 09-09 06:26 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6855685534 | $1000.00 |
| 09-09 06:25 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7553735507 | $1000.00 |
| 09-09 06:24 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8151169423 | $1000.00 |
| 09-09 06:24 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.21 | $52.50 |
| 09-07 22:30 | Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4307854 | $430.79 |
| 09-05 19:19 | Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by September 30? | BUY | 0.91 | $20.02 |
| 09-05 19:07 | Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by September 30? | BUY | 0.9 | $100.00 |