frozenriver

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

▲ CautionEdge per dollar1.5%

Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.

✕ BlockerMarkets traded20,004

Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.

▲ CautionProfit concentration30.8% from one position

Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.

✓ ClearSettled sample50 positions

Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.

? Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%

Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.

✓ ClearOpen concentration31.7% in top position

Open risk is spread across several positions.