PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

frozenriver

0x143732d8a06bd1596c694f7873cd493be80aacfe

Realised P&L
$36.2k
Volume
$14.06M
Markets traded
19,418
Open portfolio
$1.4k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded19,418
Far too many to mirror. This is automated flow across the whole venue, not a set of considered positions — copying it means rebuilding their infrastructure, at which point you are not copying anyone.
CautionProfit concentration30.1% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration28.7% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? · No0.0100.395$395.00+$385.00
US strike on Cuba by December 31? · No0.3550.745$149.00+$78.00
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? · No0.5450.380$136.78$59.39
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · No0.2520.610$134.20+$78.80
US strike on Mexico by December 31? · No0.5950.890$124.60+$41.30
Will Colombe Cahen-Salvador be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? · Yes0.0010.261$115.60+$115.16
Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? · No0.1150.987$98.60+$87.11
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026? · No0.6600.734$95.42+$9.62
Will an artwork sell for $150 million by December 31? · Yes0.2090.470$24.04+$13.33
Will the US strike 11 countries in 2026? · No0.7120.957$23.23+$5.93
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? · No0.5310.855$22.41+$8.48
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? · Yes0.0160.044$19.93+$12.47
Will Achim Steiner be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? · Yes0.0010.011$10.47+$9.47
Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? · Yes0.2100.415$7.64+$3.78
Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? · Yes0.0210.013$6.56$3.50

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
05-30 20:02Will BNB reach $800 in May?BUY0.0082717273$4.93
05-30 14:13Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 60 by May 31?BUY0.9791823809$170.84
05-29 18:54Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 45 by May 31?BUY0.7875897981$37.06
05-28 18:09Will "Apartheid" be in the headlines this week?BUY0.78$7.80
05-27 18:30Will Claude Code Commits be between 550.0k and 600.0k on June 30?BUY0.1$6.00
05-26 15:25Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games?BUY0.001$100.00
05-13 09:37Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?SELL0.78$33.71
05-12 17:19Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?SELL0.3$23.63
05-11 14:06US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?SELL0.59$354.01
05-08 20:28US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?SELL0.75$1.1k
05-08 20:16US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?SELL0.75$375.00
05-04 07:58Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?SELL0.82$82.00
05-04 07:42Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?SELL0.102$6.29
04-28 13:34US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?BUY0.73$1.5k
04-28 13:30US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?BUY0.71$355.00