classified
0x12d6cccfc7470a3f4bafc53599a4779cbf2cf2a8
- Realised P&L
- $872.5k
- Volume
- $90.83M
- Markets traded
- 1,222
- Open portfolio
- $261.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,222
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration35.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.43Mat 0.001Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
- +$886.0kat 0.002Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$603.0kat 0.030Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?
- +$368.1kat 0.001Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?
- +$221.5kat 0.999Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 20:42 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | SELL | 0.2 | $300.00 |
| 09-17 17:51 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.8 | $851.78 |
| 09-17 15:53 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.582 | $545.42 |
| 09-17 15:49 | Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.99 |
| 09-16 18:02 | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.7k |
| 09-16 18:01 | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.998 | $9.0k |
| 09-16 18:00 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9969105454 | $12.3k |
| 09-16 17:53 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.86 | $5.9k |
| 09-16 17:52 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.14 | $2.0k |
| 09-16 17:35 | Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? | SELL | 0.9 | $1.8k |
| 09-16 17:31 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.15 | $4.5k |
| 09-16 15:36 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.001 | $2.22 |
| 09-16 14:43 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.11 | $562.11 |
| 09-16 13:59 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.001 | $0.12 |
| 09-16 13:55 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.001 | $10.00 |