PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

classified

0x12d6cccfc7470a3f4bafc53599a4779cbf2cf2a8

Realised P&L
$872.5k
Volume
$90.83M
Markets traded
1,222
Open portfolio
$261.9k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar1.0%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,222
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration35.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration48.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No0.5000.840$126.0k+$51.0k
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.6410.840$70.9k+$16.8k
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.5000.160$24.0k$51.0k
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · No0.9520.983$21.5k+$668.66
Iran leadership change by December 31? · Yes0.3210.145$10.8k$13.1k
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No0.6970.695$1.7k$5.10
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8330.835$1.6k+$4.50
Iran leadership change by September 30? · No0.9620.983$1.2k+$25.95
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · No0.5810.594$1.2k+$25.53
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? · No0.9680.986$575.53+$10.51
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? · Yes0.6200.715$522.70+$69.45
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? · No0.7600.957$459.39+$94.37
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 21? · No0.6400.955$305.60+$100.80
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.4300.065$264.63$1.5k
Iran leadership change by November 30? · No0.9100.915$248.38+$1.36

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 20:42Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?SELL0.2$300.00
09-17 17:51Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?SELL0.8$851.78
09-17 15:53Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?BUY0.582$545.42
09-17 15:49Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?SELL0.001$0.99
09-16 18:02Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?BUY0.999$15.7k
09-16 18:01Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?BUY0.998$9.0k
09-16 18:00Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.9969105454$12.3k
09-16 17:53Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.86$5.9k
09-16 17:52Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.14$2.0k
09-16 17:35Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?SELL0.9$1.8k
09-16 17:31Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.15$4.5k
09-16 15:36Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?SELL0.001$2.22
09-16 14:43Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?SELL0.11$562.11
09-16 13:59Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.001$0.12
09-16 13:55Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?SELL0.001$10.00