acmzsk
0x0ef8ddd354f411a41642870f4d278bac7d220dc3
- Realised P&L
- $-2.1k
- Volume
- $32.8k
- Markets traded
- 68
- Open portfolio
- $1.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-6.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded68
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.615 | $1.4k | −$104.76 |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.835 | $217.10 | +$3.90 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.775 | $186.00 | −$1.20 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? · No | 0.680 | 0.685 | $28.77 | +$0.21 |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? · Yes | 0.176 | 0.179 | $26.96 | +$0.57 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.495 | $17.82 | −$1.26 |
| Will Isabel Díaz Ayuso be the next Prime Minister of Spain? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.028 | $5.19 | +$0.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$120.76at 0.554Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$37.94at 0.771Will Bitcoin dip to $105K in August?
- +$33.65at 0.630Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?
- +$28.20at 0.530Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?
- +$25.73at 0.604Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 15:44 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.53 | $19.08 |
| 09-17 15:40 | Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.1768496667 | $21.22 |
| 09-17 15:37 | Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $49.20 |
| 09-17 15:26 | Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.171 | $4.96 |
| 09-17 15:25 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $175.44 |
| 09-17 15:24 | Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.82 | $164.00 |
| 09-17 15:00 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by January 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.68 | $28.56 |
| 09-17 14:32 | Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | BUY | 0.66 | $177.22 |
| 09-17 14:31 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.52 | $1.6k |
| 09-16 20:28 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.54 | $7.02 |
| 09-15 16:23 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.62 | $1.7k |
| 09-15 14:27 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.62 | $167.40 |
| 09-15 14:26 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.13 | $73.07 |
| 09-15 14:26 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.11 | $16.21 |
| 09-15 14:26 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.13 | $73.07 |