m5297
0x05084ac84f39061b331a1614a03663c0a0d3d8db
- Realised P&L
- $-633.37
- Volume
- $66.1k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $56.54
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.147 | 0.041 | $28.29 | −$73.11 |
| Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.005 | $16.79 | +$8.79 |
| Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? · Yes | 0.043 | 0.067 | $7.81 | +$2.81 |
| Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.004 | $1.94 | −$3.06 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.005 | $1.70 | −$26.18 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.007 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$149.14 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.064 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$143.99 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? · No | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$128.84 |
| Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-5.00at 0.007Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?
- +$-15.59at 0.011Will Trump attend his son's wedding?
- +$-20.36at 0.056Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- +$-99.99at 0.019Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-23 17:18 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.0599999606 | $1.40 |
| 07-05 05:00 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0599999995 | $100.00 |
| 06-23 17:32 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.080999997 | $23.99 |
| 06-23 17:05 | Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.0428824086 | $5.00 |
| 06-19 19:50 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0739999966 | $20.00 |
| 06-17 07:37 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.001 | $20.15 |
| 06-17 07:37 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $30.00 |
| 06-17 04:49 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $15.00 |
| 06-15 09:19 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.122999978 | $4.69 |
| 06-15 06:21 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.107 | $4.78 |
| 06-10 18:27 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1059999803 | $4.74 |
| 06-02 21:15 | Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.0054305663 | $3.00 |
| 06-02 20:25 | Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $5.00 |
| 06-02 20:24 | Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | BUY | 0.0089999982 | $5.00 |
| 06-02 19:46 | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |