zb8
0x0224bb9eb0a5c9fd261ac9123a72cbdd5748292a
- Realised P&L
- $376.9k
- Volume
- $22.43M
- Markets traded
- 1,155
- Open portfolio
- $144.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,155
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration25.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)24.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? · No | 0.775 | 0.875 | $49.5k | +$5.6k |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.735 | 0.835 | $38.4k | +$4.6k |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? · No | 0.943 | 0.953 | $19.0k | +$197.70 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House · Yes | 0.439 | 0.595 | $13.7k | +$3.6k |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes | 0.598 | 0.765 | $7.8k | +$1.7k |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.810 | 0.895 | $7.2k | +$680.01 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · No | 0.963 | 0.980 | $6.8k | +$114.22 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No | 0.928 | 0.958 | $2.0k | +$61.38 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? · No | 0.960 | 0.995 | $257.55 | +$8.93 |
| Greta Thunberg arrested by December 31? · Yes | 0.837 | 0.898 | $77.96 | +$5.36 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.1k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$185.6kat 0.592US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$70.0kat 0.452LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs
- +$41.7kat 0.182LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs
- +$39.1kat 0.348LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs
- +$37.7kat 0.293Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 01:42 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.88 | $17.6k |
| 09-15 01:40 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.998 | $99.8k |
| 09-15 01:37 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.008 | $3.1k |
| 09-06 12:11 | LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner | BUY | 0.29 | $770.34 |
| 09-06 12:10 | LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner | BUY | 0.32 | $756.67 |
| 09-06 12:09 | LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner | BUY | 0.399804878 | $409.80 |
| 09-06 12:06 | LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner | BUY | 0.63 | $2.8k |
| 09-06 12:05 | LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner | BUY | 0.63 | $9.6k |
| 09-06 12:02 | LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner | SELL | 0.999 | $24.0k |
| 09-06 11:25 | LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.3165550207 | $6.3k |
| 09-06 11:24 | LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.3379235205 | $1.5k |
| 09-06 11:12 | LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner | BUY | 0.54 | $13.0k |
| 09-06 11:06 | LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.66 | $3.5k |
| 09-06 10:45 | LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner | SELL | 0.999 | $29.2k |
| 09-06 10:33 | LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner | BUY | 0.06 | $507.97 |