PolyBot

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Will Claude Opus's output price be at or above $50 in 2026?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends
2027-01-01
Resolves by
https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing
Rewards
20 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.12. up 0.00 over the period, from 0.12. Range 0.10 to 0.21. 168 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.144040
0.22949
0.232069
0.36140209
0.375214
0.4850264
0.49140404
0.6220424
0.7480504
0.7920524
0.8020544
0.8220564

Spread0.04Mid0.12

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.10105105
0.099601,065
0.08201,085
0.033081,393
0.0251,398
0.01781,476

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.90105105
0.919601,065
0.92201,085
0.973081,393
0.9851,398
0.99781,476

Spread0.04Mid0.88

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.864040
0.78949
0.772069
0.64140209
0.635214
0.5250264
0.51140404
0.3820424
0.2680504
0.2120524
0.2020544
0.1820564

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
AJSVYes68.91
0x25e7…45cdYes20
pootytherewardfarmerYes20
SmartBoyBillyYes3.08
0xca75…0a64Yes2
richarddNo111
FlingflongerNo2
Kronk1No1

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
15:04:27BUYYes0.119999999467$8.03
09:27:06BUYNo0.8444$36.96
07:35:42BUYNo0.8320$16.60
22:09:56BUYNo0.8420$16.80
21:55:36SELLNo0.8720$17.40
13:25:44SELLYes0.1220$2.40
13:24:50BUYNo0.85540$34.20
13:23:42BUYNo0.825152035758$48.03
13:20:42SELLNo0.8120$16.20
13:20:36BUYYes0.1710$1.70
13:20:35BUYYes0.1710$1.70
13:20:35BUYYes0.1710$1.70
13:20:33BUYYes0.1720$3.40
13:20:33SELLNo0.8330$24.90
10:35:03BUYYes0.1230$3.60
08:51:39BUYNo0.8320$16.60
06:59:03SELLNo0.8720$17.38
06:58:11SELLNo0.8729$25.23
14:16:26SELLNo0.8949$43.61
18:19:38SELLYes0.12$0.20
14:52:54SELLYes0.14$0.40
14:23:17SELLYes0.1121$2.31
14:23:09SELLYes0.11510$1.15
14:23:09SELLYes0.1220$2.40
14:23:08BUYNo0.8820$17.60