PolyBot

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Will global temperature increase by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in October 2026?

Tick
0.01
Min order
5
Fees
0.05 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.25 · takers only
Ends
2026-12-02
Resolves by
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Price history

Price history view
Yes. Currently 0.10. down 0.07 over the period, from 0.17. Range 0.10 to 0.28. 148 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live
Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.205050
0.423585
0.4730115
0.4840155
0.5395250
0.5430280
0.5515295
0.565300
0.58100400
0.591,2881,688
0.994002,088

Spread0.19Mid0.11

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.01115115

No

Live
No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.99115115

Spread0.19Mid0.90

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
PriceSizeTotal
0.805050
0.583585
0.5330115
0.5240155
0.4795250
0.4630280
0.4515295
0.445300
0.42100400
0.411,2881,688
0.014002,088

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
HolderOutcomeShares
xtxpleasecallmeYes50.45
VonVonaghYes34.55
flexer78Yes1.91
0xa5ef…2966No66.91
0x89a3…0ebfNo20

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
TimeSideOutcomePriceSizeValue
12:22:02BUYNo0.972$1.85
17:37:26SELLYes0.0891$7.28
11:02:40BUYNo0.6351$32.13
10:39:14BUYYes0.3291$29.12
21:00:05BUYNo0.745$3.70