Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027?

Tick: 0.01
Min order: 5
Fees: 0.04 · 100 @ 0.50 = $1.00 · takers only
Ends: 2027-07-01
Resolves by: https://platform.claude.com/docs/en/about-claude/pricing
Rewards: 40 min size · 4.5¢ max spread

Price history

charttable

Yes. Currently 0.65. down 0.05 over the period, from 0.70. Range 0.43 to 0.88. 168 points.

Order book

Not connected

Yes

Live

Yes asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.68	22	22
0.77	40	62
0.91	39	101
0.92	6	107
0.93	90	197
0.95	20	217
0.96	5	222
0.97	31	253
0.98	30	283
0.99	21	304

Spread0.07Mid0.65

Yes bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.61	59	59
0.60	200	259
0.55	100	359
0.27	26	385
0.26	80	465
0.10	21	486
0.06	22	508
0.05	20	528
0.04	30	558
0.03	20	578
0.02	7	585
0.01	5,025	5,611

No

Live

No asks — sell orders. Worst price first; the best ask is the last row, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.39	59	59
0.40	200	259
0.45	100	359
0.73	26	385
0.74	80	465
0.90	21	486
0.94	22	508
0.95	20	528
0.96	30	558
0.97	20	578
0.98	7	585
0.99	5,025	5,611

Spread0.07Mid0.35

No bids — buy orders. Best bid first, nearest the spread.
Price	Size	Total
0.32	22	22
0.23	40	62
0.09	39	101
0.08	6	107
0.07	90	197
0.05	20	217
0.04	5	222
0.03	31	253
0.02	30	283
0.01	21	304

Top holders

Largest holders, grouped by outcome then position size. Up to 20 per outcome, measured in shares.
Holder	Outcome	Shares
parameter1	Yes	85.52
K7fhp9vXm2Rtw4LbN8cGy3Ds6AoE	Yes	80
pootytherewardfarmer	Yes	44.3
GuyFromTinder	Yes	35.01
jhuus	Yes	22
rubby1337	Yes	20
AJSV	No	239.7
youtube-trader	No	40
UpTheStairs	No	6.87

Recent trades

Most recent trades on this market, newest first.
Time	Side	Outcome	Price	Size	Value
14:46:23	BUY	No	0.34	40	$13.60
14:10:49	BUY	Yes	0.645	40	$25.80
11:57:49	BUY	No	0.26	20	$5.20
09:47:16	BUY	No	0.28	106	$29.76
06:58:43	SELL	No	0.24	40	$9.60
06:57:25	BUY	Yes	0.74	40	$29.60
23:15:19	BUY	Yes	0.6699999163	3	$2.00
01:32:43	BUY	No	0.2299999985	33	$7.62
22:06:33	SELL	No	0.07	20	$1.40
22:05:21	SELL	No	0.13	20	$2.60
08:03:36	SELL	No	0.05	20	$1.01
20:02:06	SELL	No	0.08	20	$1.60
08:04:44	BUY	Yes	0.719999996	40	$29.00
08:04:26	SELL	No	0.29	2	$0.58
08:04:21	BUY	Yes	0.71	2	$1.42
08:04:20	BUY	Yes	0.7099999953	42	$30.00
16:50:09	BUY	Yes	0.54	20	$10.80
16:49:20	BUY	No	0.31	20	$6.20
09:25:32	BUY	Yes	0.5	20	$10.00