PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

Continue in Telegram — referral link

Traders

hokinado

0xffee18b118b9ea6c3062a4ce3aabd51cbcdaea6b

Realised P&L
$-2.9k
Volume
$95.2k
Markets traded
1,162
Open portfolio
$119.13

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,162
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
CautionProfit concentration36.8% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration27.9% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · No0.7730.670$33.24−$5.11
Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting? · Yes0.5860.585$15.94−$0.03
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on September 25? · No0.6750.725$14.50+$1.00
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of November 2026? · Yes0.4480.582$12.48+$2.86
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement? · No0.4800.455$10.53−$0.58
Will Z.ai be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.6090.568$8.81−$0.64
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on September 25? · Yes0.4380.150$4.14−$7.97
Houthis seize an oil tanker by September 30, 2026? · Yes0.2100.045$3.79−$13.71
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of October 2026? · No0.4000.190$3.74−$4.14
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement? · No0.6170.675$2.50+$0.21
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? · Yes0.3150.115$2.31−$4.02
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on September 25? · No0.6600.815$1.18+$0.22
Will Meta be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026? · No0.7260.936$1.10+$0.25
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026? · No0.2340.035$1.07−$5.95
Will Trump praise Javier Milei in September? · No0.5800.425$1.02−$0.37

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-25 06:59Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 26?SELL0.65$0.01
09-25 06:59Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 26?BUY0.3499999738$2.67
09-25 06:56Polo makes landfall in Mexico as a hurricane?BUY0.259999988$5.22
09-25 06:55No change flips Hike 25 bps for October Fed by October 15?BUY0.4699999918$10.30
09-25 06:09Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 21?BUY0.74$21.50
09-25 06:09Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 21?BUY0.73$7.30
09-24 22:57Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the December interest rate announcement?BUY0.6199999889$19.05
09-24 22:13Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?SELL0.36$0.00
09-24 22:13Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?BUY0.64$21.61
09-24 22:09Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 24°C on September 25?BUY0.43$2.21
09-24 20:00Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?SELL0.14$6.03
09-24 18:44Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?BUY0.53$1.89
09-24 18:44Will Japan's core-core CPI increase by between 2.0 and 2.4% in 2026?BUY0.49$9.80
09-24 16:57Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on September 25?SELL0.65$0.01
09-24 16:57Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on September 25?BUY0.3499999906$9.27