0xDC719Fde6ed998a38F28DEA0af7B653047a526D8-1723323482067
0xfec84ba946b063d57580366e02e97a18c75167f7
- Realised P&L
- $-195.34
- Volume
- $4.4k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration99.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration65.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? · No | 0.880 | 0.625 | $710.23 | −$289.77 |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.642 | 0.265 | $309.61 | −$440.39 |
| Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.303 | 0.100 | $32.99 | −$67.01 |
| Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? · Yes | 0.541 | 0.455 | $25.21 | −$4.79 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? · Yes | 0.950 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$78.00 |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026? · Yes | 0.484 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.078 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will GPT-5.6 be released between May 25 and May 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.94at 0.968Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 14, 2026?
- +$0.01at 0.999GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 13:20 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.54 | $250.00 |
| 09-14 17:58 | Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.9669999998 | $20.00 |
| 09-14 17:58 | Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.9669999998 | $20.00 |
| 09-14 16:26 | Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.9666617649 | $200.00 |
| 09-11 13:17 | Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? | BUY | 0.5415441731 | $30.00 |
| 09-11 13:06 | Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3031432037 | $100.00 |
| 09-11 12:40 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0779286563 | $100.00 |
| 09-11 12:35 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7088518862 | $500.00 |
| 09-11 11:52 | Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.88 | $1000.00 |
| 09-03 17:04 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.9489999966 | $8.00 |
| 09-03 17:03 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.952999999 | $10.00 |
| 09-03 17:03 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $10.00 |
| 09-03 17:02 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.9507544285 | $10.00 |
| 09-03 17:02 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.95 | $10.00 |
| 09-03 17:02 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.9491533548 | $10.00 |