juan-de-costa-rica
0xfe64c1cf97e2d7a439e0d9c634bc330aa035c314
- Realised P&L
- $1.76
- Volume
- $189.51
- Markets traded
- 32
- Open portfolio
- $115.52
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded32
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration5.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.70at 0.740Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$0.45at 0.900Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$0.40at 0.834Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$0.21at 0.904Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 12:16 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.629999995 | $5.00 |
| 10-14 01:14 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.8699999147 | $5.00 |
| 10-13 15:49 | Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8799998733 | $5.00 |
| 10-13 15:17 | Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.8299999153 | $5.00 |
| 10-13 13:33 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999679 | $5.00 |
| 10-13 07:43 | Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? | BUY | 0.5179999814 | $5.00 |
| 10-13 00:42 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | BUY | 0.4699999944 | $5.00 |
| 10-12 20:03 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.7899999905 | $5.00 |
| 10-06 15:16 | Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.8799999859 | $5.00 |
| 10-06 01:17 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | BUY | 0.86 | $5.00 |
| 09-29 19:13 | Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.8799999859 | $5.00 |
| 09-29 14:31 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.4249999958 | $5.00 |
| 09-29 06:09 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.5799999768 | $5.00 |
| 09-28 14:28 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6489999365 | $5.00 |
| 09-28 13:34 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5789999721 | $5.00 |