PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Mariogrrode

0xfe3bdee320fb32d92ea8a2b7e82f6ccb2ab3025b

Realised P&L
$494.86
Volume
$94.9k
Markets traded
497
Open portfolio
$78.74

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded497
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration84.8% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration32.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes0.0600.304$25.37+$20.37
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? · Yes0.2600.100$10.00$16.00
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? · Yes0.1250.170$4.08+$1.08
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes0.2500.095$3.80$6.20
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? · Yes0.6300.440$3.49$1.51
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0100.006$3.25$1.75
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? · Yes0.0420.026$3.15$1.85
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes0.1080.096$2.65$0.35
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes0.4060.535$2.64+$0.64
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? · Yes0.2800.240$1.71$0.29
Ebola pandemic in 2026? · Yes0.0800.033$1.65$2.35
Will Dacian Cioloș be the next Prime Minister of Romania? · Yes0.0020.003$1.50+$0.50
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes0.1400.041$1.45$3.55
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027? · Yes0.0590.016$1.36$3.64
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0060.003$1.25$1.75

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-27 17:12Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ETBUY0.4899998285$1.00
07-27 17:11Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ETBUY0.52$1.00
07-27 17:10Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ETBUY0.4399998064$1.00
07-27 17:10Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ETBUY0.33999983$1.00
07-27 17:09Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ETBUY0.024691358$1.00
07-27 17:09Bitcoin Up or Down - July 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ETBUY0.92$1.00
07-24 06:38Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ETBUY0.089999919$1.00
07-24 06:32Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ETBUY0.6699999196$1.00
07-24 06:31Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ETBUY0.7599999088$1.00
07-24 06:31Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ETBUY0.1699998861$1.00
07-24 06:30Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ETBUY0.1699998861$1.00
07-23 06:19Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ETBUY0.7899995339$1.00
07-23 06:19Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ETBUY0.7899995339$1.00
07-23 06:18Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ETBUY0.74$1.00
07-23 06:18Bitcoin Up or Down - July 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ETBUY0.2799998432$1.00