0xfc915907cf315161de19dbd0390787bdb84931eb
- Realised P&L
- $-416.21
- Volume
- $344.8k
- Markets traded
- 117
- Open portfolio
- $12.6k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded117
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration9.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.1kat 0.553Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
- +$1.7kat 0.560Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$1.4kat 0.221Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
- +$819.49at 0.295Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
- +$799.90at 0.570Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-13 12:38 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.1432347436 | $74.99 |
| 08-13 12:38 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.4716996047 | $358.02 |
| 08-13 12:38 | Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | SELL | 0.2819802454 | $253.51 |
| 08-13 12:38 | AI bubble burst in 2026? | SELL | 0.8539794897 | $512.13 |
| 08-13 12:38 | US recession by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.91 | $544.93 |
| 08-13 12:35 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.145 | $37.23 |
| 08-13 12:35 | Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? | SELL | 0.5 | $21.50 |
| 08-13 12:35 | Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | SELL | 0.3 | $44.33 |
| 08-13 12:34 | US recession by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.92 | $64.09 |
| 08-13 12:34 | Will GameStop acquire eBay? | SELL | 0.91 | $917.87 |
| 08-13 12:34 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.81 | $700.00 |
| 08-13 12:34 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | SELL | 0.8 | $1.0k |
| 08-13 12:34 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.82 | $1.3k |
| 08-13 12:34 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.54 | $1.1k |
| 08-13 12:34 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.859 | $2.3k |