PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xfc915907cf315161de19dbd0390787bdb84931eb

Realised P&L
$-416.21
Volume
$344.8k
Markets traded
117
Open portfolio
$12.6k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded117
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration33.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration9.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.5450.405$1.2k$413.77
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in September? · Yes0.4600.550$1.2k+$195.65
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September? · Yes0.2300.245$1.1k+$65.22
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? · Yes0.7100.735$1.0k+$35.21
US strike on Cuba by December 31? · No0.5640.855$830.56+$282.77
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.7190.835$710.70+$98.76
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? · Yes0.3720.525$690.79+$201.42
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? · Yes0.7000.685$685.00$15.00
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? · Yes0.3300.305$646.97$53.03
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes0.8500.885$624.70+$24.71
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? · No0.6000.920$613.67+$213.67
US recession by end of 2026? · No0.7400.895$593.44+$103.03
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31? · No0.1860.195$550.53+$23.87
Iran leadership change by December 31? · No0.6620.855$543.90+$122.88
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? · Yes0.7450.925$310.57+$60.57

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-13 12:38Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?SELL0.1432347436$74.99
08-13 12:38Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?SELL0.4716996047$358.02
08-13 12:38Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?SELL0.2819802454$253.51
08-13 12:38AI bubble burst in 2026?SELL0.8539794897$512.13
08-13 12:38US recession by end of 2026?SELL0.91$544.93
08-13 12:35Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?SELL0.145$37.23
08-13 12:35Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?SELL0.5$21.50
08-13 12:35Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?SELL0.3$44.33
08-13 12:34US recession by end of 2026?SELL0.92$64.09
08-13 12:34Will GameStop acquire eBay?SELL0.91$917.87
08-13 12:34Iran leadership change by December 31?SELL0.81$700.00
08-13 12:34US strike on Cuba by December 31?SELL0.8$1.0k
08-13 12:34Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?SELL0.82$1.3k
08-13 12:34Fed rate hike in 2026?SELL0.54$1.1k
08-13 12:34Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?SELL0.859$2.3k