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Traders

baybug

0xfb666a1656a3c9e0bb2cad14252284c7bb5b5e13

Realised P&L
$-1.1k
Volume
$595.6k
Markets traded
2,073
Open portfolio
$14.8k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded2,073
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration22.1% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration12.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8050.865$1.7k+$119.01
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.8130.876$876.51+$63.23
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? · Yes0.8640.805$567.52−$41.77
Will Chung Tung-chin win the next Miaoli County Magistrate election? · Yes0.8700.917$566.66+$29.53
Cuban regime falls in 2026? · No0.8770.885$531.00+$5.00
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? · No0.8920.885$530.28−$3.99
Will Hsieh Kuo-liang win the next Keelung Mayor election? · Yes0.7730.795$472.37+$13.14
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.6420.725$413.24+$47.25
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? · No0.8210.949$401.41+$53.93
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No0.8600.915$366.00+$22.00
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? · No0.8450.885$354.00+$16.00
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? · No0.8100.835$334.00+$10.00
Iran coup attempt by December 31? · No0.8790.905$315.19+$9.16
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? · No0.8300.850$297.51+$7.00
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? · No0.6800.725$289.99+$18.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-01 09:46EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31?BUY0.85$272.00
10-01 06:43Cuban regime falls in 2026?BUY0.89$178.00
09-30 17:55Trump Admin held in contempt over press ban by October 31?BUY0.88$35.20
09-30 15:30Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?BUY0.799$172.59
09-30 15:02Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?SELL0.98$147.00
09-30 12:58Will Chung Tung-chin win the next Miaoli County Magistrate election?BUY0.9040909413$364.00
09-30 07:55Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?SELL0.983$34.88
09-30 07:55Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?SELL0.973$49.56
09-30 05:10Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election?BUY0.91$276.64
09-29 18:36Hu Jintao public appearance by December 31?BUY0.925$18.50
09-28 12:44US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?SELL0.87$243.60
09-28 12:422026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseBUY0.61$122.00
09-27 13:11Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?BUY0.71$71.00
09-27 07:52Will Chen Chen-chung win the next Penghu County Magistrate election?BUY0.6252349494$63.00
09-27 05:39Will Chen Chen-chung win the next Penghu County Magistrate election?BUY0.5852486633$86.50
Trader baybug · PolyBot Pro