baybug
0xfb666a1656a3c9e0bb2cad14252284c7bb5b5e13
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $595.6k
- Markets traded
- 2,073
- Open portfolio
- $14.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,073
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration22.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$579.56at 0.889Iran leadership change by April 30?
- +$571.46at 0.870Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
- +$551.87at 0.640Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-21?
- +$490.47at 0.844Iran leadership change by March 31?
- +$442.73at 0.792Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 09:46 | EU country expels Russian ambassador by December 31? | BUY | 0.85 | $272.00 |
| 10-01 06:43 | Cuban regime falls in 2026? | BUY | 0.89 | $178.00 |
| 09-30 17:55 | Trump Admin held in contempt over press ban by October 31? | BUY | 0.88 | $35.20 |
| 09-30 15:30 | Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.799 | $172.59 |
| 09-30 15:02 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.98 | $147.00 |
| 09-30 12:58 | Will Chung Tung-chin win the next Miaoli County Magistrate election? | BUY | 0.9040909413 | $364.00 |
| 09-30 07:55 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | SELL | 0.983 | $34.88 |
| 09-30 07:55 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.973 | $49.56 |
| 09-30 05:10 | Will Chang San-cheng win the next Taoyuan Mayor election? | BUY | 0.91 | $276.64 |
| 09-29 18:36 | Hu Jintao public appearance by December 31? | BUY | 0.925 | $18.50 |
| 09-28 12:44 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.87 | $243.60 |
| 09-28 12:42 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | BUY | 0.61 | $122.00 |
| 09-27 13:11 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.71 | $71.00 |
| 09-27 07:52 | Will Chen Chen-chung win the next Penghu County Magistrate election? | BUY | 0.6252349494 | $63.00 |
| 09-27 05:39 | Will Chen Chen-chung win the next Penghu County Magistrate election? | BUY | 0.5852486633 | $86.50 |