0xfa2C818AD8262b6A809107f5595Df25454b016bE-1769567071006
0xfa2c818ad8262b6a809107f5595df25454b016be
- Realised P&L
- $-99.80
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $476.36
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-9.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample19 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)63.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.690 | 0.846 | $367.83 | +$67.83 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.769 | 0.835 | $21.70 | +$1.70 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.924 | 0.840 | $18.18 | −$1.82 |
| Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027? · No | 0.751 | 0.625 | $16.65 | −$3.35 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.755 | $13.48 | +$3.48 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · No | 0.488 | 0.637 | $13.06 | +$3.06 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.890 | 0.982 | $11.03 | +$1.03 |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? · Yes | 0.491 | 0.120 | $9.77 | −$30.23 |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? · Yes | 0.751 | 0.175 | $4.66 | −$15.34 |
| Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$110.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.48at 0.460Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration before 2027?
- +$10.41at 0.490Celtics vs. Lakers
- +$6.67at 0.600Cavaliers vs. Thunder
- +$4.43at 0.530Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$4.29at 0.700Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 13:23 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.4879999828 | $10.00 |
| 09-22 13:20 | Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $1.04 |
| 09-16 01:06 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.8399999933 | $10.00 |
| 09-16 01:05 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999955 | $10.00 |
| 04-22 06:13 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.8899999947 | $10.00 |
| 04-22 06:11 | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $10.00 |
| 04-22 06:10 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.699999993 | $10.00 |
| 04-22 06:09 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.9179999165 | $10.00 |
| 04-22 06:09 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.7099999815 | $10.00 |
| 04-22 06:07 | Iran coup attempt by June 30? | BUY | 0.8699999983 | $10.00 |
| 03-15 03:07 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.6799999998 | $110.00 |
| 02-23 13:12 | Kings vs. Grizzlies | BUY | 0.64 | $10.00 |
| 02-20 01:27 | Spurs vs. Pistons | BUY | 0.5299999899 | $10.00 |
| 02-20 01:24 | Magic vs. Clippers | BUY | 0.6199999864 | $10.00 |
| 02-20 01:24 | 76ers vs. Timberwolves | BUY | 0.699999993 | $10.00 |