0xf9cf9d5514b43e540e8fb2de2c53d8bb56f7009e
0xf9cf9d5514b43e540e8fb2de2c53d8bb56f7009e
- Realised P&L
- $0.75
- Volume
- $343.52
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $10.82
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.945 | $2.89 | +$1.36 |
| Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026 · No | 0.490 | 0.780 | $1.59 | +$0.59 |
| Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.365 | $1.46 | +$0.46 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.475 | $1.36 | +$0.36 |
| Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $182 in September? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.710 | $1.34 | +$0.34 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · No | 0.730 | 0.885 | $1.21 | +$0.21 |
| Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September? · No | 0.720 | 0.700 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?
- +$3.71at 0.350US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$3.34at 0.382Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$3.34at 0.382Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-27 19:41 | Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 09:40 | Will Tesla deliver between 475000 and 500000 vehicles in Q3 2026 | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 01:03 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299994744 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 15:13 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 07:12 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 20:58 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $182 in September? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 10:39 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 24 to September 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $2.00 |
| 09-23 02:36 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 17:26 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.75 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 04:06 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 18:35 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 07:54 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 10:49 | S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on September 17? | BUY | 0.5099999516 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 10:48 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $2.00 |
| 09-12 17:26 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099999816 | $2.00 |