Alfonso910616
0xf4379537274c55e37565db471b916a10d1dada96
- Realised P&L
- $-37.20
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Markets traded
- 220
- Open portfolio
- $4.55
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded220
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration55.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.961 | $2.91 | +$1.91 |
| Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.335 | $0.91 | −$0.09 |
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.041 | $0.32 | −$0.68 |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.043 | $0.25 | −$0.75 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.025 | $0.14 | −$0.86 |
| Will there be 10 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.004 | $0.03 | −$0.97 |
| Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will there be 10 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.65at 0.329Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
- +$9.46at 0.517Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?
- +$6.28at 0.447Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?
- +$6.10at 0.146Will there be 9 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
- +$5.21at 0.167Will there be 7 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 21:24 | Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Christian Mbilli | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 13:42 | Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-28 13:42 | Will there be 10 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.1499999925 | $1.00 |
| 10-21 21:57 | Will there be 10 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 14:56 | Will there be 9 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.1399999832 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 16:10 | Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 13:02 | Will Netherlands win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.9399999624 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 13:02 | Will Ireland win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.96 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 13:02 | Will England win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.9299999907 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 13:02 | Will Scotland win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 13:01 | Will Portugal win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.9 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 13:01 | Will Wales win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.849999915 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 13:01 | Will Switzerland win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.92 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 13:01 | Will Sweden win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.97 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 13:01 | Will Italy win on 2026-10-13? | BUY | 0.9299999907 | $1.00 |