0xF2B05d854E0aF18E70B76e96534E2e7F7A04b26b-1750278413305
0xf2b05d854e0af18e70b76e96534e2e7f7a04b26b
- Realised P&L
- $-18.4k
- Volume
- $1.00M
- Markets traded
- 238
- Open portfolio
- $30.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded238
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration33.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.2kat 0.883Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?
- +$2.6kat 0.920Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$1.7kat 0.819US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
- +$1.4kat 0.832US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
- +$1.4kat 0.936Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 19:43 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7? | BUY | 0.87 | $104.40 |
| 09-29 16:12 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.975 | $97.50 |
| 09-29 16:12 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.974 | $63.80 |
| 09-29 16:01 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.973 | $30.26 |
| 09-29 16:01 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.972 | $97.20 |
| 09-29 16:01 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.971 | $58.78 |
| 09-29 16:00 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.97 | $5.11 |
| 09-29 16:00 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.969 | $41.75 |
| 09-27 19:36 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | SELL | 0.07 | $7.00 |
| 09-27 19:36 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.08 | $8.00 |
| 09-27 19:28 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.957 | $95.70 |
| 09-27 19:25 | Trump renames AI by September 30? | BUY | 0.76 | $7.60 |
| 09-26 18:59 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $420.00 |
| 09-26 18:10 | US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30? | BUY | 0.962 | $252.04 |
| 09-26 18:09 | Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | BUY | 0.97 | $97.00 |