PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

47Capital

0xf29dbb8a92efb21e55094f0892a0a5d28b8fadd3

Realised P&L
$2.4k
Volume
$118.9k
Markets traded
103
Open portfolio
$4.8k

Can you copy this trader?

plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.1%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded103
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration17.9% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)68.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration33.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? · No0.6920.694$1.6k+$2.77
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? · No0.3240.435$726.92+$186.05
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.6890.692$662.09+$3.00
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · No0.2700.315$533.92+$76.28
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? · No0.1610.100$400.64−$244.28
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes0.3010.300$345.79−$1.12
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? · Yes0.7140.690$207.01−$7.34
Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026? · No0.4180.505$139.43+$23.95
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.0640.100$86.22+$30.99
San Diego State vs. Oregon State: O/U 53.5 · Under0.5200.130$62.50−$187.50
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.1000.085$29.66−$5.24
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? · Yes0.0140.021$21.76+$6.42
Spread: Texas (-7.5) · Texas0.5000.027$13.50−$236.50
Duke vs. Georgia Tech: O/U 47.5 · Under0.5600.001$0.10−$109.72
Duke vs. Georgia Tech: O/U 49.5 · Under0.5500.000$0.00−$385.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-10 23:12Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?BUY0.6872482113$74.92
10-10 22:59Duke vs. Georgia TechSELL0.999$139.86
10-10 22:21Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY0.301$75.86
10-10 22:19Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?BUY0.3016075645$271.05
10-10 19:50Duke vs. Georgia TechBUY0.51$71.40
10-10 19:49Duke vs. Georgia Tech: O/U 49.5BUY0.55$385.00
10-10 19:48Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?SELL0.75$330.00
10-10 19:48Duke vs. Georgia Tech: O/U 49.5SELL0.45$126.90
10-10 19:47Duke vs. Georgia Tech: O/U 49.5BUY0.479822695$135.31
10-10 19:41Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?SELL0.821$8.71
10-10 19:39Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?SELL0.3$139.70
10-10 19:38Duke vs. Georgia Tech: O/U 47.5BUY0.56$109.82
10-10 19:37Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?SELL0.8281084226$116.02
10-10 19:36Duke vs. Georgia Tech: O/U 45.5BUY0.5195463862$618.49
10-10 19:36Duke vs. Georgia Tech: O/U 45.5BUY0.51$32.13