Le-bron
0xf17101255c04271ad62c28a7a6ae1e1e2ad2398d
- Realised P&L
- $-104.46
- Volume
- $22.3k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $2.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration41.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)75.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$687.65at 0.447Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$224.54at 0.290Israel military action against Iran before July?
- +$189.89at 0.440Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?
- +$176.09at 0.460Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election?
- +$119.89at 0.530Israel military action against Iran by end of 2024?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-20 19:15 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.71 | $161.11 |
| 09-01 17:40 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.56 | $487.40 |
| 06-25 13:00 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.87011 | $87.01 |
| 06-25 13:00 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | SELL | 0.9816912135 | $260.88 |
| 06-25 12:59 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.36 | $522.72 |
| 06-15 14:04 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.34 | $17.68 |
| 06-15 11:32 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.39 | $351.00 |
| 06-15 11:30 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.39 | $195.00 |
| 05-23 19:07 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | SELL | 0.9650870019 | $166.39 |
| 05-11 11:21 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.6 | $60.00 |
| 04-05 17:36 | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.2110135302 | $100.00 |
| 03-21 20:57 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? | BUY | 0.5644365364 | $150.00 |
| 03-02 09:17 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.5799999979 | $100.00 |
| 02-24 22:09 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | BUY | 0.4 | $100.00 |
| 02-20 19:58 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.938 | $169.81 |