0xeBCd4506042F2Acc7560e14f98643A5c8De77782-1765197130783
0xebcd4506042f2acc7560e14f98643a5c8de77782
- Realised P&L
- $-1.18
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 23
- Open portfolio
- $66.43
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded23
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration30.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? · Yes | 0.321 | 0.320 | $19.95 | −$0.05 |
| Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? · Yes | 0.148 | 0.066 | $11.13 | −$13.87 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · No | 0.916 | 0.974 | $9.73 | +$0.57 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No | 0.950 | 0.969 | $9.69 | +$0.18 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · No | 0.820 | 0.885 | $5.40 | +$0.40 |
| Will Trump's approval rating hit 50% in 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.052 | $5.20 | −$4.80 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.385 | $4.81 | −$0.19 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.015 | $0.48 | −$4.52 |
| Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.054 | 0.001 | $0.03 | −$3.72 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.93at 0.382Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?
- +$0.64at 0.887Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
- +$0.59at 0.750Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
- +$0.56at 0.900Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
- +$0.50at 0.950Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-23 20:11 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.886999991 | $5.00 |
| 05-14 09:57 | Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.021 | $0.81 |
| 05-13 22:19 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.85 | $10.36 |
| 05-13 22:00 | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.1103077408 | $22.76 |
| 05-09 11:39 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BUY | 0.916 | $9.16 |
| 04-21 22:40 | Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.054527429 | $15.00 |
| 04-21 22:39 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.405 | $5.03 |
| 04-18 12:55 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | SELL | 0.84 | $5.59 |
| 04-16 15:17 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $5.00 |
| 04-16 15:16 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4 | $5.00 |
| 04-16 15:16 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4019999825 | $5.00 |
| 04-16 15:14 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.7499998875 | $5.00 |
| 03-19 00:42 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.8199999672 | $10.00 |
| 02-04 02:17 | Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? | BUY | 0.32078699 | $20.00 |
| 02-04 02:17 | Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? | SELL | 0.3 | $3.85 |