joao.humberto
0xe861d2193f9458fb765c335dc7c77fdd8bf9461e
- Realised P&L
- $75.26
- Volume
- $58.4k
- Markets traded
- 81
- Open portfolio
- $1.31
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded81
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$66.01at 0.010Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?
- +$62.46at 0.464Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$37.50at 0.160Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
- +$20.25at 0.034Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?
- +$13.45at 0.400Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-25 22:50 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.35 | $2.41 |
| 10-25 22:40 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.2899999884 | $2.00 |
| 10-25 22:15 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4349999195 | $2.00 |
| 10-23 16:21 | Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.3889999376 | $2.00 |
| 10-20 13:34 | Will there be at least 4700 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0609999986 | $1.00 |
| 10-20 13:33 | Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0899999969 | $2.00 |
| 10-16 17:50 | Will there be at least 4700 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $2.00 |
| 10-16 17:50 | Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $2.00 |
| 10-12 15:21 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%? | BUY | 0.0229999999 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 15:09 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? | BUY | 0.4899998383 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 15:09 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 15:07 | Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1299999948 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 15:06 | Will there be at least 4700 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 15:04 | Will there be at least 5500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.1499999925 | $1.00 |
| 10-12 15:04 | Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? | BUY | 0.2899999884 | $1.00 |