joao.humberto
0xe861d2193f9458fb765c335dc7c77fdd8bf9461e
- Realised P&L
- $40.60
- Volume
- $54.7k
- Markets traded
- 46
- Open portfolio
- $118.96
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded46
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample42 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration45.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.455 | 0.410 | $54.09 | −$5.91 |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.844 | 0.927 | $43.96 | +$3.96 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.302 | 0.262 | $10.40 | −$1.60 |
| Will there be at least 2550 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.410 | $7.88 | −$2.12 |
| Will there be at least 2600 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.280 | 0.240 | $2.57 | −$0.43 |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.82 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$67.15at 0.010Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?
- +$37.65at 0.157Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
- +$20.63at 0.032Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?
- +$13.76at 0.391Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
- +$9.51at 0.424Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 15:34 | Will there be at least 2600 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999515 | $3.00 |
| 07-31 18:08 | Will there be at least 2550 measles cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5199999813 | $10.00 |
| 07-24 18:47 | Will there be at least 2350 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9099999808 | $18.00 |
| 07-17 09:28 | Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1799999755 | $5.00 |
| 07-17 09:21 | Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.8533987241 | $10.70 |
| 07-14 17:14 | Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2308835031 | $19.82 |
| 07-11 22:34 | Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.389999986 | $10.00 |
| 07-10 00:35 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY | 0.001 | $10.00 |
| 07-10 00:20 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY | 0.001 | $8.00 |
| 07-09 23:29 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY | 0.001 | $15.00 |
| 07-09 14:56 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY | 0.001 | $5.00 |
| 07-08 22:51 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY | 0.001 | $3.00 |
| 07-08 19:22 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY | 0.001 | $3.00 |
| 07-08 17:44 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.00 |
| 07-08 14:16 | Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | BUY | 0.001 | $4.00 |