kgrjbuo
0xe544bc4b0d8a3c859f990033b1d2991422683028
- Realised P&L
- $-787.53
- Volume
- $24.3k
- Markets traded
- 12
- Open portfolio
- $1.0k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded12
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration87.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration31.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.640 | 0.775 | $325.50 | +$56.70 |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? · No | 0.860 | 0.982 | $314.08 | +$38.88 |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.592 | 0.497 | $223.88 | −$42.52 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.065 | $175.50 | −$175.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$866.43at 0.500Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$106.67at 0.780Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- +$13.08at 0.749Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
- +$4.14at 0.904Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31?
- +$0.00at 0.888Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-22 09:12 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.13 | $351.00 |
| 06-22 07:59 | Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.741 | $185.25 |
| 05-28 01:51 | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.094 | $188.00 |
| 05-21 09:33 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? | SELL | 0.92 | $255.75 |
| 05-21 09:32 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? | SELL | 0.93 | $27.90 |
| 05-19 09:47 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by December 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $288.00 |
| 05-07 02:00 | Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | SELL | 0.86 | $77.40 |
| 04-27 08:32 | Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $936.00 |
| 04-16 03:07 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.276 | $16.01 |
| 04-11 09:31 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.725 | $544.00 |
| 01-22 07:55 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on January 22? | BUY | 0.08 | $301.12 |