Dcgunduz
0xe3d05d82e05da2b888752dbd2e028e63c09b4e7d
- Realised P&L
- $482.68
- Volume
- $154.9k
- Markets traded
- 332
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded332
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$662.10at 0.481Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?
- +$259.74at 0.317Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?
- +$255.00at 0.150Assad out as President of Syria by March 31, 2025?
- +$248.46at 0.387Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals?
- +$219.25at 0.590Ethereum above $3,000 on November 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-23 09:29 | Will the ECB announce no change at the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.17 | $21.76 |
| 10-21 06:17 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.14 | $14.00 |
| 10-16 18:42 | Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.562 | $28.10 |
| 10-16 18:42 | Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.553 | $24.89 |
| 10-16 18:31 | Will the ECB announce no change at the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.15 | $10.50 |
| 10-16 18:26 | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.65 | $65.00 |
| 10-16 18:15 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.535 | $53.50 |
| 10-16 18:15 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.135 | $54.00 |
| 10-16 18:09 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.69 | $75.90 |
| 07-15 05:08 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.198 | $340.03 |
| 07-11 06:24 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.1789999994 | $200.00 |
| 07-11 06:23 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.211 | $350.28 |
| 07-06 11:22 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.128 | $76.80 |
| 07-06 11:21 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.167 | $100.20 |
| 05-23 08:13 | Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? | BUY | 0.61 | $27.45 |