0xe0e1b922451db1b48cee8ac75400ef2eb5b030ad
0xe0e1b922451db1b48cee8ac75400ef2eb5b030ad
- Realised P&L
- $-217.32
- Volume
- $5.1k
- Markets traded
- 79
- Open portfolio
- $42.25
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded79
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration37.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.282 | 0.629 | $15.81 | +$8.72 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No | 0.750 | 0.865 | $5.77 | +$0.77 |
| Will Wales win on 2026-10-01? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.135 | $5.19 | +$0.19 |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-10-02? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.155 | $4.84 | −$0.16 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.005 | $3.80 | −$0.35 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.004 | $3.34 | −$0.37 |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.126 | 0.089 | $1.88 | −$0.77 |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-10-03? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.028 | $0.93 | −$0.07 |
| Will San Marino win on 2026-10-06? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.018 | $0.67 | −$0.33 |
| Will China PR win on 2026-10-02? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Turkmenistan win on 2026-10-02? · Yes | 0.014 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$31.08at 0.254Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
- +$8.84at 0.540Bitcoin Up or Down - August 1, 6PM ET
- +$7.42at 0.620Will United States win on 2026-06-19?
- +$7.30at 0.369Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw?
- +$6.59at 0.610Hyperliquid Up or Down - August 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 17:45 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.005 | $3.71 |
| 09-30 17:45 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.006 | $4.15 |
| 09-30 17:43 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET | SELL | 0.78 | $8.48 |
| 09-30 17:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET | BUY | 0.4 | $4.35 |
| 09-30 17:39 | Will San Marino win on 2026-10-06? | BUY | 0.0259999996 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 17:39 | Will Czechia win on 2026-10-03? | BUY | 0.0299999994 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 17:36 | Will Wales win on 2026-10-01? | BUY | 0.1299999982 | $5.00 |
| 09-30 17:36 | Will Türkiye win on 2026-10-02? | BUY | 0.16 | $5.00 |
| 09-30 17:32 | Will China PR win on 2026-10-02? | BUY | 0.0356437404 | $2.00 |
| 09-30 17:32 | Will Turkmenistan win on 2026-10-02? | BUY | 0.014 | $2.00 |
| 09-30 17:29 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.993 | $11.28 |
| 09-25 01:53 | Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? | SELL | 0.977 | $10.18 |
| 08-16 19:12 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $6.82 |
| 08-15 17:22 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.2819999823 | $7.09 |
| 08-09 18:41 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | SELL | 0.5236764706 | $14.24 |