Bebel003
0xe0a20e75c2a668cb063eef914fa860a9458ac6b6
- Realised P&L
- $-8.74
- Volume
- $223.51
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $19.25
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration44.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)77.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? · No | 0.680 | 0.955 | $7.64 | +$2.20 |
| James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.975 | $5.85 | +$0.33 |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.175 | $2.78 | −$2.15 |
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.080 | $2.40 | −$1.50 |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.032 | $0.32 | −$6.08 |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.255 | $0.27 | −$0.40 |
| Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.489 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.36 |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.40 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? · No | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.40 |
| Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the July decision? · No | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.85at 0.258GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?
- +$8.51at 0.370Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?
- +$4.56at 0.645Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by June 30?
- +$3.06at 0.660Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by June 30?
- +$0.72at 0.880Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-02 21:28 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.11 | $4.40 |
| 07-02 21:20 | Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? | BUY | 0.68 | $5.44 |
| 07-02 06:23 | GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 07-02 05:43 | Will Tesla deliver 475000 or more vehicles in Q2 2026 | BUY | 0.4699999887 | $5.00 |
| 05-13 06:49 | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BUY | 0.31 | $4.93 |
| 05-13 06:48 | Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BUY | 0.13 | $3.90 |
| 05-13 06:48 | Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BUY | 0.63 | $0.67 |
| 05-06 18:15 | Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? | BUY | 0.6 | $5.40 |
| 04-30 17:53 | James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $5.52 |
| 04-17 18:55 | Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.64 | $6.40 |
| 04-17 18:55 | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.489 | $6.36 |
| 04-17 18:53 | Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by June 30? | BUY | 0.66 | $5.94 |
| 04-17 18:51 | Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30? | BUY | 0.89 | $5.34 |
| 04-17 18:49 | Nasdaq round-the-clock trading by June 30? | BUY | 0.88 | $5.28 |
| 04-12 07:37 | Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by June 30? | BUY | 0.88 | $5.28 |