hzb8848
0xdda022be1b7707489a2593a515b1f8f5e4139553
- Realised P&L
- $-5.9k
- Volume
- $465.0k
- Markets traded
- 66
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded66
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration77.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.632 | 0.295 | $1.2k | −$1.3k |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.816 | 0.430 | $268.37 | −$240.92 |
| Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.122 | 0.035 | $35.02 | −$87.54 |
| Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.066 | 0.013 | $27.00 | −$104.99 |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027? · No | 0.239 | 0.237 | $7.13 | −$0.04 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.350 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.5k |
| Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$120.13 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$274.88 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.011 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$32.98 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.8kat 0.227Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$1.3kat 0.650Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?
- +$1.1kat 0.773Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch?
- +$446.84at 0.776Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$428.16at 0.492Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 12:36 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.22 | $440.00 |
| 09-11 12:36 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.239 | $7.17 |
| 09-11 07:27 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.39 | $780.00 |
| 09-11 07:25 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.39 | $780.00 |
| 08-28 15:07 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.53 | $1.1k |
| 08-13 15:29 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.72 | $519.16 |
| 08-13 15:27 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.012 | $36.00 |
| 08-07 13:52 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.55 | $1.6k |
| 08-05 11:51 | Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.015 | $0.91 |
| 08-03 11:14 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.012 | $60.00 |
| 08-01 02:59 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.018 | $54.00 |
| 08-01 02:52 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.41 | $410.00 |
| 08-01 02:52 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | BUY | 0.67 | $669.99 |
| 08-01 02:51 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.41 | $820.00 |
| 07-31 08:37 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.011 | $26.29 |